Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Tapu Lele
PsychicFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
57.663
82.5%
Standard error 7.04 points
▾
252+ SpA Tapu Lele Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex in Psychic Terrain: 314-372 (103.2 - 122.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
02
Suicune
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
51.08
69.5%
Standard error 6.44 points
▾
252+ Atk Toxapex Poison Jab vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Suicune: 58-70 (14.3 - 17.3%) -- possible 9HKO
03
Kartana
GrassSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
29.644
75.0%
Standard error 7.95 points
▾
252+ Atk Kartana Leaf Blade vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 144-171 (47.3 - 56.2%) -- 82.4% chance to 2HKO
04
Heatran
FireSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
69.755
64.2%
Standard error 8.03 points
▾
252+ SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 122-144 (40.1 - 47.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
05
Garchomp
DragonGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
64.187
62.3%
Standard error 8.42 points
▾
252+ Atk Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 252-296 (82.8 - 97.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
06
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
65.38
60.7%
Standard error 8.54 points
▾
252+ Atk Toxapex Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Ferrothorn: 44-52 (12.5 - 14.7%) -- possible 7HKO
07
Blissey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
54.742
50.4%
Standard error 6.76 points
▾
Blissey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Toxapex: 100-100 (32.8 - 32.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
08
Landorus-Therian
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
90.356
52.7%
Standard error 7.42 points
▾
252+ Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 270-320 (88.8 - 105.2%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
09
Hippowdon
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
48.278
50.3%
Standard error 7.20 points
▾
252+ Atk Hippowdon Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 224-266 (73.6 - 87.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after sandstorm damage
10
Slowking-Galar
PoisonPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
103.411
53.8%
Standard error 8.16 points
▾
252+ SpA Slowking-Galar Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 216-254 (71 - 83.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
11
Tapu Koko
ElectricFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.261
61.3%
Standard error 10.32 points
▾
252+ SpA Tapu Koko Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 146-174 (48 - 57.2%) -- 88.7% chance to 2HKO
12
Clefable
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
218.481
35.5%
Standard error 5.35 points
▾
252+ SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 39-46 (12.8 - 15.1%) -- possible 7HKO
13
Toxapex
PoisonWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
525.456
24.7%
Standard error 2.80 points
▾
252+ Atk Toxapex Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 51-61 (16.7 - 20%) -- possible 5HKO
14
Slowking
WaterPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
112.267
34.7%
Standard error 6.03 points
▾
252+ SpA Slowking Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 204-240 (67.1 - 78.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
15
Melmetal
Steel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
21.932
53.1%
Standard error 10.66 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 180-212 (59.2 - 69.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
16
Corviknight
FlyingSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
166.439
28.6%
Standard error 4.69 points
▾
252+ Atk Corviknight Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 114-135 (37.5 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
17
Dragapult
DragonGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
84.612
38.1%
Standard error 7.26 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Dragapult Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 163-193 (53.6 - 63.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
18
Zapdos
ElectricFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
54.37
46.1%
Standard error 9.55 points
▾
252+ SpA Zapdos Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 176-210 (57.8 - 69%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
19
Blacephalon
FireGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
29.539
44.4%
Standard error 9.14 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Blacephalon Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 135-160 (44.4 - 52.6%) -- 22.3% chance to 2HKO
20
Weavile
DarkIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
95.713
31.7%
Standard error 6.64 points
▾
252+ Atk Weavile Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 115-136 (37.8 - 44.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
21
Slowbro
WaterPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
85.434
36.1%
Standard error 8.77 points
▾
252+ SpA Slowbro Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 204-240 (67.1 - 78.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
22
Tornadus-Therian
Flying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
337.847
11.8%
Standard error 2.81 points
▾
252+ Atk Tornadus-Therian Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 68-80 (22.3 - 26.3%) -- 11.9% chance to 4HKO
23
Urshifu-Rapid-Strike
FightingWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
31.735
30.7%
Standard error 8.19 points
▾
252+ Atk Choice Band Urshifu-Rapid-Strike Thunder Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 188-222 (61.8 - 73%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Ranked #8 with 23.60% usage. Sorted by conservative score.