Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Dondozo
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
23.568
80.5%
Standard error 8.15 points
▾
252+ Atk Ceruledge Poltergeist vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 127-150 (25.1 - 29.7%) -- 0.1% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
02
Kingambit
DarkSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
96.821
64.3%
Standard error 8.23 points
▾
252+ Atk Ceruledge Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Kingambit: 356-420 (88.1 - 103.9%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
03
Great Tusk
GroundFighting
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
132.877
59.1%
Standard error 7.21 points
▾
252+ Atk Ceruledge Poltergeist vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Great Tusk: 115-136 (26.4 - 31.3%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
04
Garchomp
DragonGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
57.3
60.7%
Standard error 9.09 points
▾
252+ Atk Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 432-510 (122 - 144%) -- guaranteed OHKO
05
Zamazenta
Fighting
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
151.684
50.9%
Standard error 6.93 points
▾
252+ Atk Zamazenta Stone Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 272-322 (76.8 - 90.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
06
Urshifu-Rapid-Strike
FightingWater
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
72.013
61.1%
Standard error 9.89 points
▾
252+ Atk Urshifu-Rapid-Strike Surging Strikes (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Weak Armor Ceruledge on a critical hit: 740-874 (209 - 246.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
07
Landorus-Therian
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
127.835
48.8%
Standard error 7.53 points
▾
252+ Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 470-554 (132.7 - 156.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
08
Dragonite
DragonFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
50.603
55.1%
Standard error 9.85 points
▾
252+ Atk Dragonite Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 294-348 (83 - 98.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
09
Iron Valiant
FairyFighting
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
29.064
49.9%
Standard error 9.27 points
▾
252+ Atk Iron Valiant Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 280-330 (79 - 93.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
10
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
23.969
53.5%
Standard error 10.19 points
▾
252+ Atk Ting-Lu Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 386-456 (109 - 128.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
11
Ursaluna
GroundNormal
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.185
56.2%
Standard error 11.04 points
▾
252+ Atk Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 546-644 (154.2 - 181.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
12
Ogerpon-Wellspring
GrassWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
37.398
43.7%
Standard error 8.11 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Ivy Cudgel vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 492-578 (138.9 - 163.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
13
Raging Bolt
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
44.073
48.9%
Standard error 10.60 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ceruledge: 262-309 (74 - 87.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
14
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
62.035
41.5%
Standard error 8.82 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 348-410 (98.3 - 115.8%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO
15
Alomomola
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
170.718
24.9%
Standard error 5.66 points
▾
252+ Atk Alomomola Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 194-230 (54.8 - 64.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
16
Terapagos
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
81.222
31.1%
Standard error 7.22 points
▾
0- SpA Terapagos Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ceruledge: 60-72 (16.9 - 20.3%) -- possible 5HKO
17
Toxapex
PoisonWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
52.318
37.9%
Standard error 9.33 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ceruledge: 120-144 (33.8 - 40.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
18
Tapu Lele
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
27.312
31.5%
Standard error 8.89 points
▾
252+ SpA Tapu Lele Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge in Psychic Terrain: 225-265 (63.5 - 74.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
19
Tornadus-Therian
Flying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
20.148
39.5%
Standard error 10.89 points
▾
0- Atk Tornadus-Therian Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 152-180 (42.9 - 50.8%) -- 3.9% chance to 2HKO
20
Gholdengo
SteelGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
59.017
26.8%
Standard error 8.08 points
▾
252+ SpA Gholdengo Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ceruledge: 212-252 (59.8 - 71.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
21
Scizor-Mega
BugSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
48.242
28.3%
Standard error 9.10 points
▾
252+ Atk Scizor-Mega Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 312-368 (88.1 - 103.9%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
22
Corviknight
FlyingSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
57.036
4.5%
Standard error 3.72 points
▾
252+ Atk Corviknight Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 198-234 (55.9 - 66.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
23
Volcarona
BugFire
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
28.273
18.7%
Standard error 7.33 points
▾
252+ SpA Volcarona Psychic vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ceruledge: 80-95 (22.5 - 26.8%) -- 35.7% chance to 4HKO
24
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
25.972
21.5%
Standard error 8.06 points
▾
252+ Atk Iron Treads Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 390-462 (110.1 - 130.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
25
Zapdos
ElectricFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
29.403
15.3%
Standard error 6.64 points
▾
252+ SpA Zapdos Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ceruledge: 138-163 (38.9 - 46%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
26
Melmetal
Steel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
22.759
24.7%
Standard error 9.04 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ceruledge: 310-366 (87.5 - 103.3%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
Ranked #38 with 5.09% usage. Sorted by conservative score.