Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Venusaur-Mega
GrassPoison
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
75.797
88.9%
Standard error 3.61 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Ivy Cudgel vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Venusaur-Mega: 63-75 (17.3 - 20.6%) -- possible 5HKO
02
Zamazenta
Fighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
282.395
82.0%
Standard error 2.29 points
▾
252+ Atk Zamazenta Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 235-277 (64.5 - 76%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
03
Serperior
Grass
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
44.775
87.4%
Standard error 4.96 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring U-turn vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Serperior: 142-168 (40.1 - 47.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
04
Tangrowth
Grass
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
66.419
82.6%
Standard error 4.65 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring U-turn vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tangrowth: 118-140 (29.2 - 34.6%) -- 6.9% chance to 3HKO
05
Dragonite
DragonFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
180.711
76.3%
Standard error 3.16 points
▾
252+ Atk Dragonite Fly vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 384-452 (105.4 - 124.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
06
Iron Valiant
FairyFighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
92.624
75.2%
Standard error 4.49 points
▾
0- Atk Iron Valiant Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 169-199 (46.4 - 54.6%) -- 62.9% chance to 2HKO
07
Amoonguss
GrassPoison
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
28.257
81.0%
Standard error 7.39 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Ivy Cudgel vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Amoonguss: 92-108 (21.2 - 25%) -- 0.1% chance to 4HKO
08
Lopunny-Mega
NormalFighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
125.443
64.8%
Standard error 4.26 points
▾
252+ Atk Lopunny-Mega Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 258-304 (70.8 - 83.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
09
Kyurem
DragonIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
165.404
61.5%
Standard error 3.78 points
▾
252+ SpA Kyurem Freeze-Dry vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 372-444 (102.1 - 121.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
10
Kingambit
DarkSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
163.247
57.2%
Standard error 3.87 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Kingambit: 412-488 (101.9 - 120.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
11
Raging Bolt
ElectricDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
207.021
55.2%
Standard error 3.46 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 268-316 (73.6 - 86.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
12
Charizard-Mega-X
FireDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
24.219
75.3%
Standard error 8.76 points
▾
252+ Atk Tough Claws Charizard-Mega-X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 324-382 (89 - 104.9%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
13
Tornadus-Therian
Flying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
182.504
53.5%
Standard error 3.69 points
▾
252+ SpA Tornadus-Therian Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 260-308 (71.4 - 84.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
14
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
151.795
54.0%
Standard error 4.05 points
▾
252+ Atk Ferrothorn Power Whip vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 199-235 (54.6 - 64.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
15
Terapagos
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
198.818
49.0%
Standard error 3.55 points
▾
252+ Atk Terapagos Rapid Spin vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 67-79 (18.4 - 21.7%) -- possible 5HKO
16
Pecharunt
PoisonGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
124.642
52.1%
Standard error 4.47 points
▾
252+ SpA Pecharunt Malignant Chain vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 204-242 (56 - 66.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
17
Melmetal
Steel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
127.839
50.5%
Standard error 4.42 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Superpower vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 179-211 (49.1 - 57.9%) -- 97.7% chance to 2HKO
18
Ogerpon-Wellspring
GrassWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
217.764
45.2%
Standard error 3.37 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Power Whip vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 282-333 (77.4 - 91.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
19
Hydrapple
GrassDragon
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
50.761
56.8%
Standard error 6.95 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Hydrapple: 166-196 (39.9 - 47.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
20
Gholdengo
SteelGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
204.744
38.9%
Standard error 3.41 points
▾
252+ SpA Gholdengo Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 109-129 (29.9 - 35.4%) -- 22.4% chance to 3HKO
21
Gyarados-Mega
WaterDark
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.826
66.4%
Standard error 10.35 points
▾
252+ Atk Mold Breaker Gyarados-Mega Bounce vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 270-318 (74.1 - 87.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
22
Toxapex
PoisonWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
243.387
36.3%
Standard error 3.08 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 138-164 (37.9 - 45%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
23
Clefable
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
84.673
45.4%
Standard error 5.41 points
▾
252+ SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 102-121 (28 - 33.2%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
24
Garchomp
DragonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
134.662
40.6%
Standard error 4.23 points
▾
252+ Atk Garchomp Outrage vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 249-294 (68.4 - 80.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
25
Scizor-Mega
BugSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
101.715
42.5%
Standard error 4.90 points
▾
252+ Atk Technician Scizor-Mega Dual Wingbeat (2 hits) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 372-440 (102.1 - 120.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
26
Zapdos
ElectricFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
221.687
35.1%
Standard error 3.21 points
▾
252+ SpA Zapdos Hurricane vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring: 284-336 (78 - 92.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
27
Ceruledge
FireGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.617
61.5%
Standard error 10.23 points
▾
252+ Atk Ceruledge Poltergeist vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 222-262 (60.9 - 71.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
28
Charizard-Mega-Y
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
111.217
38.4%
Standard error 4.61 points
▾
252+ SpA Charizard-Mega-Y Overheat vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ogerpon-Wellspring in Sun: 301-355 (82.6 - 97.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
29
Keldeo
WaterFighting
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
61.937
45.0%
Standard error 6.32 points
▾
252+ SpA Keldeo Secret Sword vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 177-208 (48.6 - 57.1%) -- 92.6% chance to 2HKO
30
Corviknight
FlyingSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
201.828
31.5%
Standard error 3.27 points
▾
252+ Atk Corviknight Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Ogerpon-Wellspring: 380-450 (104.3 - 123.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Ranked #7 with 15.08% usage. Sorted by conservative score.