Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Celebi
PsychicGrass
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
109.33
76.5%
Standard error 4.05 points
▾
252+ SpA Swampert Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celebi: 124-146 (30.6 - 36.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
02
Suicune
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
68.312
69.6%
Standard error 5.57 points
▾
0- Atk Swampert Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Suicune: 94-111 (23.2 - 27.4%) -- possible 5HKO
03
Zapdos
ElectricFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
119.419
59.4%
Standard error 4.49 points
▾
252+ SpA Zapdos Hidden Power Grass vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Swampert: 255-300 (63.1 - 74.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
04
Gengar
GhostPoison
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
79.302
61.0%
Standard error 5.48 points
▾
252+ SpA Gengar Hidden Power Grass vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Swampert: 261-308 (64.6 - 76.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
05
Skarmory
SteelFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
163.69
52.7%
Standard error 3.90 points
▾
252+ Atk Skarmory Drill Peck vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Swampert: 114-135 (28.2 - 33.4%) -- 93.4% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
06
Starmie
WaterPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
75.508
53.3%
Standard error 5.74 points
▾
252+ SpA Starmie Hydro Pump vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Swampert: 139-164 (34.4 - 40.5%) -- 50.3% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
07
Swampert
WaterGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
143.104
47.0%
Standard error 4.17 points
▾
252+ SpA Swampert Hydro Pump vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Swampert: 125-148 (30.9 - 36.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
08
Jirachi
SteelPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
64.66
49.1%
Standard error 6.22 points
▾
0- SpA Jirachi Hidden Power Grass vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Swampert: 142-168 (35.1 - 41.5%) -- 78.8% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
09
Registeel
Steel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
65.959
48.5%
Standard error 6.15 points
▾
252+ Atk Registeel Explosion vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Swampert: 452-532 (111.8 - 131.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
10
Salamence
DragonFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
147.212
38.5%
Standard error 4.01 points
▾
0- SpA Salamence Hidden Power Grass vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Swampert: 156-184 (38.6 - 45.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
11
Blissey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
210.959
33.2%
Standard error 3.24 points
▾
Blissey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Swampert: 100-100 (24.7 - 24.7%) -- guaranteed 6HKO after Leftovers recovery
12
Metagross
SteelPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
121.363
28.8%
Standard error 4.11 points
▾
252+ Atk Metagross Explosion vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Swampert: 670-789 (165.8 - 195.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
13
Tyranitar
RockDark
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
321.994
20.5%
Standard error 2.25 points
▾
252+ Atk Tyranitar Focus Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Swampert: 201-237 (49.7 - 58.6%) -- 69.5% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
14
Forretress
BugSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
58.903
34.9%
Standard error 6.21 points
▾
252+ Atk Forretress Explosion vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Swampert: 507-597 (125.4 - 147.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
15
Aerodactyl
RockFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
91.175
24.5%
Standard error 4.51 points
▾
252+ Atk Choice Band Aerodactyl Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Swampert: 203-239 (50.2 - 59.1%) -- 78.5% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
16
Snorlax
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
21.147
48.8%
Standard error 10.87 points
▾
0- Atk Snorlax Self-Destruct vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Swampert: 457-538 (113.1 - 133.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
17
Claydol
GroundPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
20.185
17.9%
Standard error 8.53 points
▾
252+ Atk Claydol Explosion vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Swampert: 434-511 (107.4 - 126.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Ranked #2 with 43.55% usage. Sorted by conservative score.