Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Heatran
FireSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
92.024
67.5%
Standard error 8.40 points
▾
252+ SpA Heatran Magma Storm vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 254-302 (63.8 - 75.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery and trapping damage
02
Victini
PsychicFire
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.258
67.0%
Standard error 9.96 points
▾
252+ Atk Celesteela Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Victini: 146-172 (36.1 - 42.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
03
Toxapex
PoisonWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
199.856
46.6%
Standard error 5.95 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 58-70 (14.5 - 17.5%) -- possible 9HKO
04
Greninja
WaterDark
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
98.448
44.2%
Standard error 8.66 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Greninja Hydro Pump vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 180-213 (45.2 - 53.5%) -- 1.2% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
05
Zapdos
ElectricFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
48.056
48.0%
Standard error 9.88 points
▾
252+ SpA Zapdos Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 224-266 (56.2 - 66.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
06
Tapu Koko
ElectricFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
45.308
48.9%
Standard error 10.48 points
▾
252+ SpA Life Orb Tapu Koko Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela in Electric Terrain: 361-429 (90.7 - 107.7%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
07
Magearna
SteelFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
126.594
35.0%
Standard error 7.28 points
▾
252+ SpA Magearna Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 154-182 (38.6 - 45.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
08
Landorus-Therian
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
152.666
27.7%
Standard error 6.26 points
▾
252+ Atk Landorus-Therian Explosion vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Celesteela: 158-186 (39.6 - 46.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
09
Tapu Fini
WaterFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
21.757
44.4%
Standard error 10.65 points
▾
Tapu Fini Nature's Madness vs. 252 HP Celesteela: 199-199 (50 - 50%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
10
Celesteela
SteelFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
27.571
38.9%
Standard error 9.28 points
▾
0- SpA Celesteela Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 90-106 (22.6 - 26.6%) -- possible 5HKO
11
Garchomp
DragonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
22.899
41.0%
Standard error 10.28 points
▾
252+ Atk Garchomp Fire Fang vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Celesteela: 152-180 (38.1 - 45.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
12
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
93.186
30.9%
Standard error 8.15 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Celesteela: 91-108 (22.8 - 27.1%) -- 50.2% chance to 4HKO
13
Chansey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
32.022
25.9%
Standard error 7.74 points
▾
Chansey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Celesteela: 100-100 (25.1 - 25.1%) -- guaranteed 5HKO after Leftovers recovery
14
Kartana
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
66.1
24.5%
Standard error 7.43 points
▾
252+ Atk Kartana Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Celesteela: 146-172 (36.6 - 43.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
15
Rotom-Wash
ElectricWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
23.518
33.8%
Standard error 9.75 points
▾
252+ SpA Rotom-Wash Thunder vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 242-288 (60.8 - 72.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
16
Clefable
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
34.655
22.0%
Standard error 7.04 points
▾
252+ SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 49-58 (12.3 - 14.5%)
17
Tornadus-Therian
Flying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
60.645
19.1%
Standard error 7.11 points
▾
252+ SpA Tornadus-Therian Heat Wave vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 146-172 (36.6 - 43.2%) -- 98.5% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
18
Latias-Mega
DragonPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
27.777
21.6%
Standard error 7.81 points
▾
252+ SpA Latias-Mega Thunder vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 200-236 (50.2 - 59.2%) -- 79.3% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
19
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
62.702
16.8%
Standard error 6.66 points
▾
252+ Atk Ferrothorn Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Celesteela: 91-108 (22.8 - 27.1%) -- 50.2% chance to 4HKO
20
Serperior
Grass
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
24.622
23.9%
Standard error 8.60 points
▾
252+ SpA Serperior Hidden Power Fire vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 72-86 (18 - 21.6%) -- possible 7HKO
21
Tapu Lele
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
30.098
16.7%
Standard error 6.79 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Tapu Lele Thunder vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Celesteela: 282-332 (70.8 - 83.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
22
Skarmory
SteelFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
25.019
8.1%
Standard error 5.47 points
▾
252+ Atk Skarmory Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Celesteela: 76-90 (19 - 22.6%) -- possible 6HKO
23
Excadrill
GroundSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
45.788
14.1%
Standard error 7.13 points
▾
252+ Atk Excadrill Rock Slide vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Celesteela: 90-107 (22.6 - 26.8%) -- possible 5HKO
Ranked #24 with 7.81% usage. Sorted by conservative score.