Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Swampert-Mega
WaterGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
153.202
82.7%
Standard error 5.28 points
▾
252+ Atk Swampert-Mega Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 278-330 (91.4 - 108.5%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
02
Alakazam-Mega
Psychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
73.048
87.9%
Standard error 6.60 points
▾
252+ SpA Alakazam-Mega Psychic vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 228-270 (75 - 88.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
03
Tapu Lele
PsychicFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
120.277
82.5%
Standard error 5.98 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Tapu Lele Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex in Psychic Terrain: 450-530 (148 - 174.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
04
Hoopa-Unbound
PsychicDark
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
26.929
82.4%
Standard error 7.35 points
▾
252+ Atk Choice Band Hoopa-Unbound Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 350-414 (115.1 - 136.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
05
Gyarados
WaterFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.739
84.5%
Standard error 7.94 points
▾
252+ Atk Gyarados Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 162-192 (53.2 - 63.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
06
Hawlucha
FightingFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
32.966
80.4%
Standard error 6.92 points
▾
252+ Atk Hawlucha Stone Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 66-78 (21.7 - 25.6%) -- possible 5HKO
07
Seismitoad
WaterGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
61.281
80.6%
Standard error 6.98 points
▾
252+ SpA Seismitoad Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 134-162 (44 - 53.2%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
08
Serperior
Grass
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
96.751
77.6%
Standard error 7.16 points
▾
0- Atk Toxapex Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Serperior: 45-54 (12.7 - 15.2%) -- possible 7HKO
09
Kyurem-Black
DragonIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
148.218
73.7%
Standard error 6.21 points
▾
252+ Atk Kyurem-Black Fusion Bolt vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 204-242 (67.1 - 79.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
10
Gliscor
GroundFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
328.569
64.5%
Standard error 4.55 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Gliscor: 144-170 (40.6 - 48%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
11
Charizard-Mega-X
FireDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
58.692
76.8%
Standard error 7.65 points
▾
252+ Atk Tough Claws Charizard-Mega-X Outrage vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 195-229 (64.1 - 75.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
12
Medicham-Mega
FightingPsychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
139.646
72.0%
Standard error 6.55 points
▾
252+ Atk Pure Power Medicham-Mega Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 332-392 (109.2 - 128.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
13
Mawile-Mega
SteelFairy
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
87.024
76.5%
Standard error 7.68 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Mawile-Mega: 61-73 (20 - 24%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
14
Garchomp
DragonGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
80.422
77.3%
Standard error 7.91 points
▾
252+ Atk Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 252-296 (82.8 - 97.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
15
Tapu Koko
ElectricFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
270.599
64.2%
Standard error 4.94 points
▾
252+ SpA Life Orb Tapu Koko Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex in Electric Terrain: 283-338 (93 - 111.1%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
16
Manaphy
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
121.516
68.1%
Standard error 5.97 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Manaphy: 30-36 (7.4 - 8.9%)
17
Reuniclus
Psychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
122.274
71.5%
Standard error 7.04 points
▾
252+ SpA Reuniclus Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 194-230 (63.8 - 75.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
18
Heatran
FireSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
313.118
59.4%
Standard error 4.77 points
▾
252+ SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 122-144 (40.1 - 47.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
19
Suicune
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
86.365
58.4%
Standard error 5.30 points
▾
0- Atk Toxapex Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Suicune: 39-46 (9.6 - 11.3%) -- possible 9HKO
20
Tyranitar-Mega
RockDark
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.23
73.5%
Standard error 9.36 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Tyranitar-Mega in Sand: 72-86 (17.8 - 21.2%) -- possible 5HKO
21
Tapu Fini
WaterFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
388.952
52.9%
Standard error 4.37 points
▾
Tapu Fini Nature's Madness vs. 252 HP Toxapex: 152-152 (50 - 50%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
22
Landorus-Therian
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
330.73
52.9%
Standard error 4.73 points
▾
252+ Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 270-320 (88.8 - 105.2%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
23
Clefable
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
312.368
53.0%
Standard error 4.81 points
▾
252+ SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 39-46 (12.8 - 15.1%)
24
Magearna
SteelFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
381.665
49.1%
Standard error 4.38 points
▾
252+ SpA Magearna Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 122-144 (40.1 - 47.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
25
Excadrill
GroundSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
111.487
62.6%
Standard error 7.91 points
▾
252+ Atk Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 258-306 (84.8 - 100.6%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
26
Kommo-o
DragonFighting
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
42.023
58.9%
Standard error 7.59 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kommo-o: 29-34 (8.1 - 9.6%)
27
Kartana
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
197.204
51.9%
Standard error 6.08 points
▾
252+ Atk Kartana Giga Impact vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 160-189 (52.6 - 62.1%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
28
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
317.817
45.0%
Standard error 4.80 points
▾
252+ Atk Ferrothorn Power Whip vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 120-142 (39.4 - 46.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
29
Toxapex
PoisonWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
651.053
36.8%
Standard error 3.25 points
▾
0- Atk Toxapex Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 30-36 (9.8 - 11.8%) -- possible 9HKO
30
Chansey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
188.227
46.9%
Standard error 6.19 points
▾
Chansey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Toxapex: 100-100 (32.8 - 32.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Black Sludge recovery
Ranked #6 with 17.40% usage. Sorted by conservative score.