Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Swampert-Mega
WaterGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
146.228
87.5%
Standard error 2.74 points
▾
252+ Atk Swampert-Mega Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 278-330 (91.4 - 108.5%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
02
Serperior
Grass
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
55.844
84.4%
Standard error 4.86 points
▾
0- Atk Toxapex Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Serperior: 45-54 (12.7 - 15.2%) -- possible 7HKO
03
Alakazam-Mega
Psychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
24.553
88.9%
Standard error 6.33 points
▾
252+ SpA Alakazam-Mega Psychic vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 228-270 (75 - 88.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
04
Kyurem-Black
DragonIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
133.039
75.2%
Standard error 3.74 points
▾
252+ Atk Kyurem-Black Fusion Bolt vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 204-242 (67.1 - 79.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
05
Tapu Lele
PsychicFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
89.189
77.0%
Standard error 4.45 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Tapu Lele Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex in Psychic Terrain: 450-530 (148 - 174.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
06
Medicham-Mega
FightingPsychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
135.85
74.0%
Standard error 3.76 points
▾
252+ Atk Pure Power Medicham-Mega Zen Headbutt vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 332-392 (109.2 - 128.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO
07
Charizard-Mega-X
FireDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
26.432
83.0%
Standard error 7.31 points
▾
252+ Atk Tough Claws Charizard-Mega-X Outrage vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 195-229 (64.1 - 75.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
08
Excadrill
GroundSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
75.588
73.2%
Standard error 5.10 points
▾
252+ Atk Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 258-306 (84.8 - 100.6%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
09
Tapu Koko
ElectricFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
248.603
63.5%
Standard error 3.05 points
▾
252+ SpA Tapu Koko Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex in Electric Terrain: 218-260 (71.7 - 85.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
10
Gliscor
GroundFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
289.975
61.5%
Standard error 2.86 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Gliscor: 144-170 (40.6 - 48%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
11
Seismitoad
WaterGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
48.858
74.2%
Standard error 6.26 points
▾
252+ Atk Seismitoad Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 204-240 (67.1 - 78.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
12
Heatran
FireSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
284.186
58.4%
Standard error 2.92 points
▾
252+ SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 122-144 (40.1 - 47.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
13
Clefable
Fairy
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
263.21
55.5%
Standard error 3.06 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Clefable: 64-76 (16.2 - 19.2%) -- possible 8HKO
14
Magearna
SteelFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
346.159
52.7%
Standard error 2.68 points
▾
252+ SpA Magearna Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 122-144 (40.1 - 47.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
15
Mawile-Mega
SteelFairy
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
38.839
71.0%
Standard error 7.28 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Mawile-Mega: 61-73 (20 - 24%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
16
Suicune
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
136.748
57.7%
Standard error 4.22 points
▾
0- Atk Toxapex Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Suicune: 39-46 (9.6 - 11.3%) -- possible 9HKO
17
Landorus-Therian
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
293.441
52.1%
Standard error 2.92 points
▾
252+ Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 270-320 (88.8 - 105.2%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
18
Reuniclus
Psychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
52.66
65.5%
Standard error 6.55 points
▾
252+ SpA Reuniclus Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 194-230 (63.8 - 75.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
19
Manaphy
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
44.163
66.4%
Standard error 7.11 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Manaphy: 30-36 (7.4 - 8.9%)
20
Tapu Fini
WaterFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
287.204
49.2%
Standard error 2.95 points
▾
Tapu Fini Nature's Madness vs. 252 HP Toxapex: 152-152 (50 - 50%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
21
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
276.065
48.0%
Standard error 3.01 points
▾
252+ Atk Ferrothorn Power Whip vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 120-142 (39.4 - 46.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
22
Dragonite
DragonFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
47.119
61.7%
Standard error 7.08 points
▾
252+ Atk Dragonite Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 170-202 (55.9 - 66.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
23
Chansey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
180.191
46.4%
Standard error 3.71 points
▾
Chansey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Toxapex: 100-100 (32.8 - 32.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Black Sludge recovery
24
Toxapex
PoisonWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
566.929
38.8%
Standard error 2.05 points
▾
0- Atk Toxapex Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 30-36 (9.8 - 11.8%) -- possible 9HKO
25
Garchomp
DragonGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
25.31
67.3%
Standard error 9.33 points
▾
252+ Atk Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 252-296 (82.8 - 97.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
26
Victini
PsychicFire
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
79.877
51.4%
Standard error 5.59 points
▾
Victini Final Gambit vs. 252 HP Toxapex: 341-341 (112.1 - 112.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
27
Kartana
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
154.672
41.9%
Standard error 3.97 points
▾
252+ Atk Kartana Giga Impact vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 160-189 (52.6 - 62.1%) -- 98.8% chance to 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
28
Latias-Mega
DragonPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
171.747
39.0%
Standard error 3.72 points
▾
252+ SpA Latias-Mega Psychic vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 192-228 (63.1 - 75%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
29
Greninja
WaterDark
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
407.152
32.2%
Standard error 2.32 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Greninja Dark Pulse vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 103-123 (33.8 - 40.4%) -- 38% chance to 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
30
Skarmory
SteelFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
103.597
35.9%
Standard error 4.71 points
▾
252+ Atk Skarmory Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 109-129 (35.8 - 42.4%) -- 88.7% chance to 3HKO after Black Sludge recovery
Ranked #6 with 18.35% usage. Sorted by conservative score.