Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Tapu Lele
PsychicFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
222.995
76.1%
Standard error 4.91 points
▾
252+ SpA Tapu Lele Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 266-314 (58.5 - 69.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
02
Kyurem
DragonIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
137.262
76.9%
Standard error 6.12 points
▾
252+ SpA Kyurem Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 252-296 (55.5 - 65.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
03
Charizard-Mega-X
FireDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
126.574
77.3%
Standard error 6.36 points
▾
252+ Atk Tough Claws Charizard-Mega-X Outrage vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 606-714 (133.4 - 157.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
04
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
182.744
73.3%
Standard error 5.64 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ferrothorn: 118-139 (33.5 - 39.4%) -- 18.8% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
05
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
322.108
66.9%
Standard error 4.54 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Iron Treads: 164-193 (42.7 - 50.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
06
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
325.021
65.6%
Standard error 4.53 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Vessel of Ruin Ting-Lu: 228-268 (44.3 - 52.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
07
Great Tusk
GroundFighting
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
358.75
64.3%
Standard error 4.26 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Great Tusk: 382-450 (88 - 103.6%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
08
Garchomp
DragonGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
226.107
68.3%
Standard error 5.30 points
▾
252+ Atk Garchomp Outrage vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 468-552 (103 - 121.5%) -- guaranteed OHKO
09
Dragonite
DragonFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
180.757
63.6%
Standard error 6.18 points
▾
252+ Atk Dragonite Outrage vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 476-564 (104.8 - 124.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
10
Volcarona
BugFire
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
107.448
62.9%
Standard error 6.53 points
▾
252+ SpA Volcarona Bug Buzz vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 129-153 (28.4 - 33.7%) -- 0.2% chance to 3HKO
11
Latios-Mega
DragonPsychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
41.548
65.2%
Standard error 7.39 points
▾
252+ SpA Latios-Mega Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 422-500 (92.9 - 110.1%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO
12
Terapagos
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
189.137
59.6%
Standard error 6.05 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Terapagos: 291-343 (75.7 - 89.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
13
Clodsire
PoisonGround
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
149.213
59.4%
Standard error 6.86 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Clodsire: 262-309 (56.4 - 66.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
14
Kingambit
DarkSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
289.302
52.0%
Standard error 5.03 points
▾
252+ Atk Black Glasses Kingambit Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 234-276 (51.5 - 60.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
15
Heatran
FireSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
142.772
60.1%
Standard error 7.06 points
▾
252+ SpA Heatran Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 168-198 (37 - 43.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
16
Zamazenta
Fighting
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
334.372
50.3%
Standard error 4.69 points
▾
252+ Atk Zamazenta Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 220-261 (48.4 - 57.4%) -- 94.1% chance to 2HKO
17
Tyranitar
RockDark
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
59.291
65.5%
Standard error 8.66 points
▾
252+ Atk Choice Band Tyranitar Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 396-468 (87.2 - 103%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO (56.3% chance to OHKO after sandstorm damage)
18
Tyranitar-Mega
RockDark
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
96.061
64.0%
Standard error 8.37 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Tyranitar-Mega in Sand: 154-183 (38.1 - 45.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
19
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
478.538
45.6%
Standard error 3.91 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 314-372 (69.1 - 81.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
20
Swampert-Mega
WaterGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
111.225
61.0%
Standard error 7.92 points
▾
252+ Atk Swampert-Mega Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 432-510 (95.1 - 112.3%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
21
Chansey
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
103.861
61.3%
Standard error 8.11 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Eviolite Chansey: 169-201 (24 - 28.5%) -- 97.1% chance to 4HKO
22
Landorus-Therian
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
359.159
46.6%
Standard error 4.52 points
▾
252+ Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 422-498 (92.9 - 109.6%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO
23
Hoopa-Unbound
PsychicDark
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.302
66.9%
Standard error 9.97 points
▾
252+ Atk Hoopa-Unbound Hyperspace Fury vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 228-268 (50.2 - 59%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
24
Diancie-Mega
RockFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
114.86
57.0%
Standard error 7.95 points
▾
252+ SpA Diancie-Mega Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 308-366 (67.8 - 80.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
25
Clefable
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
88.341
54.9%
Standard error 7.44 points
▾
252+ SpA Clefable Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 216-254 (47.5 - 55.9%) -- 79.3% chance to 2HKO
26
Gholdengo
SteelGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
292.813
44.3%
Standard error 5.00 points
▾
252+ SpA Gholdengo Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 114-135 (25.1 - 29.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
27
Raging Bolt
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
226.134
46.4%
Standard error 5.72 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Raging Bolt: 564-666 (124.2 - 146.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
28
Ursaluna
GroundNormal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
114.144
53.7%
Standard error 7.84 points
▾
252+ Atk Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 492-582 (108.3 - 128.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
29
Melmetal
Steel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
211.172
43.6%
Standard error 5.88 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 278-328 (61.2 - 72.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
30
Excadrill
GroundSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
23.785
60.0%
Standard error 10.04 points
▾
252+ Atk Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Raging Bolt: 402-474 (88.5 - 104.4%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
Ranked #11 with 13.07% usage. Sorted by conservative score.