Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Charizard-Mega-Y
FireFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
100.783
86.9%
Standard error 5.59 points
▾
252+ SpA Charizard-Mega-Y Overheat vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal in Sun: 764-902 (161.1 - 190.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
02
Medicham-Mega
FightingPsychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.93
87.2%
Standard error 7.31 points
▾
252+ Atk Pure Power Medicham-Mega Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 524-620 (110.5 - 130.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
03
Volcarona
BugFire
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
107.06
78.7%
Standard error 5.40 points
▾
252+ SpA Volcarona Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 312-368 (65.8 - 77.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
04
Zamazenta
Fighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
232.411
74.0%
Standard error 4.95 points
▾
252+ Atk Zamazenta Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 300-354 (63.2 - 74.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
05
Charizard-Mega-X
FireDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
53.235
81.7%
Standard error 7.30 points
▾
252+ Atk Tough Claws Charizard-Mega-X Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 410-486 (86.4 - 102.5%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO
06
Heatran
FireSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
121.856
74.2%
Standard error 6.68 points
▾
252+ SpA Heatran Eruption (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 506-596 (106.7 - 125.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
07
Gholdengo
SteelGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
285.146
60.4%
Standard error 4.95 points
▾
252+ SpA Gholdengo Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 276-326 (58.2 - 68.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
08
Ursaluna
GroundNormal
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
91.93
67.0%
Standard error 6.91 points
▾
252+ Atk Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 336-396 (70.8 - 83.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
09
Iron Hands
FightingElectric
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
48.414
65.9%
Standard error 6.81 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Iron Hands: 176-208 (34.3 - 40.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
10
Great Tusk
GroundFighting
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
183.505
61.6%
Standard error 5.86 points
▾
252+ Atk Punching Glove Iron Fist Melmetal Double Iron Bash (2 hits) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Great Tusk: 182-216 (41.9 - 49.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
11
Kingambit
DarkSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
218.678
57.5%
Standard error 5.67 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Kingambit: 392-464 (97 - 114.8%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO
12
Ceruledge
FireGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.759
71.8%
Standard error 9.43 points
▾
252+ Atk Ceruledge Bitter Blade vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 230-272 (48.5 - 57.3%) -- 94.1% chance to 2HKO
13
Lopunny-Mega
NormalFighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
31.556
64.5%
Standard error 8.52 points
▾
252+ Atk Lopunny-Mega Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 326-386 (68.7 - 81.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
14
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
132.792
58.1%
Standard error 7.32 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Superpower vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Iron Treads: 196-232 (51 - 60.4%) -- 89.5% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
15
Scizor-Mega
BugSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
173.604
52.2%
Standard error 6.51 points
▾
252+ Atk Scizor-Mega Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 236-278 (49.7 - 58.6%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO
16
Volcanion
FireWater
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
21.001
66.8%
Standard error 10.28 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Volcanion: 164-194 (45 - 53.2%) -- 35.5% chance to 2HKO
17
Urshifu-Rapid-Strike
FightingWater
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
132.719
55.2%
Standard error 7.40 points
▾
252+ Atk Urshifu-Rapid-Strike Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 318-374 (67 - 78.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
18
Zapdos
ElectricFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
234.035
47.4%
Standard error 5.58 points
▾
252+ SpA Zapdos Heat Wave vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 208-246 (43.8 - 51.8%) -- 12.5% chance to 2HKO
19
Terapagos
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
167.706
51.0%
Standard error 6.59 points
▾
0- SpA Terapagos Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 78-92 (16.4 - 19.4%) -- possible 6HKO
20
Raging Bolt
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
211.172
48.0%
Standard error 5.90 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Raging Bolt Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 237-280 (50 - 59%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
21
Dondozo
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
36.089
55.4%
Standard error 8.27 points
▾
252+ Atk Punching Glove Iron Fist Melmetal Thunder Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 168-198 (33.3 - 39.2%) -- 16.6% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
22
Moltres
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
98.957
54.8%
Standard error 8.62 points
▾
252+ SpA Moltres Flamethrower vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 296-350 (62.4 - 73.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
23
Corviknight
FlyingSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
287.016
38.8%
Standard error 4.76 points
▾
0 Def Corviknight Body Press vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 90-106 (18.9 - 22.3%) -- possible 5HKO
24
Iron Valiant
FairyFighting
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
66.131
53.3%
Standard error 8.54 points
▾
252+ Atk Iron Valiant Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 318-374 (67 - 78.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
25
Ogerpon-Wellspring
GrassWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
228.166
38.8%
Standard error 5.49 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Superpower vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 238-282 (50.2 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
26
Rotom-Heat
ElectricFire
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
49.923
55.0%
Standard error 9.78 points
▾
252+ SpA Rotom-Heat Overheat vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 378-446 (79.7 - 94%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
27
Melmetal
Steel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
118.121
46.8%
Standard error 7.86 points
▾
252+ Atk Melmetal Superpower vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 226-268 (47.6 - 56.5%) -- 85.9% chance to 2HKO
28
Garchomp
DragonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
131.786
44.7%
Standard error 7.35 points
▾
252+ Atk Garchomp Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 264-312 (55.6 - 65.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
29
Landorus-Therian
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
300.733
30.5%
Standard error 4.54 points
▾
252+ Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Melmetal: 288-338 (60.7 - 71.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
30
Kyurem
DragonIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
168.079
36.4%
Standard error 6.12 points
▾
252+ SpA Kyurem Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Melmetal: 204-240 (43 - 50.6%) -- 2% chance to 2HKO
Ranked #29 with 7.35% usage. Sorted by conservative score.