Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Calyrex-Shadow
PsychicGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
404.705
75.9%
Standard error 3.63 points
▾
252+ SpA Calyrex-Shadow Astral Barrage vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Fairy: 163-193 (36.7 - 43.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
02
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
126.356
82.6%
Standard error 5.71 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Iron Head vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 408-482 (91.8 - 108.5%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO
03
Clodsire
PoisonGround
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
164.837
66.4%
Standard error 6.03 points
▾
252+ SpA Arceus-Fairy Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Clodsire: 146-174 (31.4 - 37.5%) -- 87.4% chance to 3HKO
04
Necrozma-Dusk-Mane
PsychicSteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
46.83
75.3%
Standard error 8.83 points
▾
252+ Atk Necrozma-Dusk-Mane Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 356-420 (80.1 - 94.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
05
Kyogre
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
73.554
66.2%
Standard error 7.73 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kyogre: 117-138 (28.9 - 34.1%) -- 2.1% chance to 3HKO
06
Koraidon
FightingDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
600.46
47.1%
Standard error 3.46 points
▾
252+ Atk Orichalcum Pulse Koraidon Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy in Sun: 253-298 (56.9 - 67.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
07
Arceus-Ground
Ground
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
182.993
55.3%
Standard error 6.29 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
08
Arceus
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
233.142
52.0%
Standard error 5.55 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 139-165 (31.3 - 37.1%) -- 79% chance to 3HKO
09
Eternatus
PoisonDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
75.223
59.8%
Standard error 7.80 points
▾
252+ SpA Eternatus Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Fairy: 222-264 (50 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
10
Miraidon
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
475.786
43.8%
Standard error 3.90 points
▾
252+ SpA Hadron Engine Miraidon Electro Drift vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Fairy in Electric Terrain: 204-240 (45.9 - 54%) -- 48.4% chance to 2HKO
11
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
492.264
33.8%
Standard error 3.64 points
▾
252+ Atk Ho-Oh Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 184-217 (41.4 - 48.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
12
Calyrex-Ice
PsychicIce
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
74.443
57.2%
Standard error 9.88 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Calyrex-Ice: 123-145 (30.4 - 35.8%) -- 45.3% chance to 3HKO
13
Arceus-Fairy
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
80.309
46.4%
Standard error 7.76 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Fairy: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
14
Smeargle
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
123.92
42.1%
Standard error 7.63 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 9-11 (2 - 2.4%)
15
Glimmora
RockPoison
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
111.591
40.6%
Standard error 7.98 points
▾
0- SpA Glimmora Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Fairy: 63-75 (14.1 - 16.8%) -- possible 6HKO
16
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
103.937
34.9%
Standard error 8.03 points
▾
252+ Atk Iron Treads Iron Head vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 222-264 (50 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
17
Skeledirge
FireGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
71.393
41.9%
Standard error 10.08 points
▾
252+ SpA Skeledirge Torch Song vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Fairy: 82-97 (18.4 - 21.8%) -- possible 5HKO
18
Kingambit
DarkSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
52.821
38.4%
Standard error 9.34 points
▾
252+ Atk Kingambit Iron Head vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 254-300 (57.2 - 67.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
19
Ditto
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
108.713
31.4%
Standard error 7.60 points
▾
Ditto vs. Arceus-Fairy: 0-0 (0 - 0%)
20
Hatterene
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
29.447
36.4%
Standard error 8.87 points
▾
252+ SpA Hatterene Misty Explosion vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Fairy: 118-141 (26.5 - 31.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
21
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
120.215
23.5%
Standard error 6.46 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 124-147 (27.9 - 33.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
22
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
109.705
18.1%
Standard error 5.15 points
▾
252+ Atk Ting-Lu Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 136-162 (30.6 - 36.4%) -- 58.2% chance to 3HKO
23
Corviknight
FlyingSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
39.731
16.0%
Standard error 5.81 points
▾
252+ Atk Corviknight Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 141-166 (31.7 - 37.3%) -- 87.1% chance to 3HKO
24
Alomomola
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
41.382
7.1%
Standard error 4.00 points
▾
252+ Atk Alomomola Flip Turn vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 64-76 (14.4 - 17.1%) -- possible 6HKO
25
Grimmsnarl
DarkFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
32.091
15.3%
Standard error 6.35 points
▾
252+ Atk Grimmsnarl Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 130-154 (29.2 - 34.6%) -- 6.3% chance to 3HKO
26
Ribombee
BugFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
23.399
20.7%
Standard error 8.38 points
▾
252+ SpA Ribombee Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Fairy: 88-105 (19.8 - 23.6%) -- possible 5HKO
27
Chien-Pao
DarkIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
26.51
11.1%
Standard error 6.10 points
▾
252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Fairy: 165-195 (37.1 - 43.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Ranked #21 with 7.79% usage. Sorted by conservative score.