Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Dondozo
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
179.867
82.4%
Standard error 3.96 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 108-127 (21.4 - 25.1%) -- possible 5HKO
02
Skarmory
SteelFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
23.53
82.5%
Standard error 7.84 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 46-55 (13.7 - 16.4%) -- possible 7HKO
03
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
521.191
64.6%
Standard error 3.55 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 408-482 (91.8 - 108.5%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
04
Koraidon
FightingDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
1,943.574
57.5%
Standard error 1.91 points
▾
252+ Atk Orichalcum Pulse Koraidon Collision Course (133.3251953125 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 560-660 (126.1 - 148.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
05
Skeledirge
FireGhost
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
466.827
62.3%
Standard error 3.83 points
▾
252+ Atk Arceus Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skeledirge: 164-194 (39.8 - 47%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
06
Calyrex-Ice
PsychicIce
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
342.595
63.2%
Standard error 4.33 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Calyrex-Ice: 88-105 (21.7 - 25.9%) -- 2.9% chance to 4HKO
07
Corviknight
FlyingSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
235.94
62.5%
Standard error 5.40 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Corviknight: 57-67 (14.2 - 16.7%) -- possible 9HKO
08
Arceus
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
1,445.111
48.5%
Standard error 2.23 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 139-165 (31.3 - 37.1%) -- 79% chance to 3HKO
09
Garganacl
Rock
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
62.791
70.2%
Standard error 8.10 points
▾
252+ Atk Arceus Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Garganacl: 136-162 (33.6 - 40%) -- 32.3% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
10
Calyrex-Shadow
PsychicGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
3,845.747
42.6%
Standard error 1.36 points
▾
252+ SpA Calyrex-Shadow Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 147-174 (33.1 - 39.1%) -- 99.8% chance to 3HKO
11
Arceus-Ground
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
718.948
45.7%
Standard error 3.10 points
▾
252+ Atk Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 174-205 (39.1 - 46.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
12
Ursaluna
GroundNormal
OFFENSIVE CHECK
29.842
64.8%
Standard error 8.74 points
13
Arceus-Water
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
90.312
58.7%
Standard error 7.30 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Arceus-Water: 103-123 (23.1 - 27.7%) -- 73.7% chance to 4HKO
14
Sneasler
FightingPoison
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
132.077
58.4%
Standard error 7.22 points
▾
252+ Atk Sneasler Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 368-434 (82.8 - 97.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
15
Necrozma-Dusk-Mane
PsychicSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
251.151
49.3%
Standard error 5.40 points
▾
252+ Atk Necrozma-Dusk-Mane Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 178-210 (40 - 47.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
16
Miraidon
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
1,499.771
36.2%
Standard error 2.12 points
▾
252+ SpA Hadron Engine Miraidon Electro Drift vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus in Electric Terrain: 204-240 (45.9 - 54%) -- 48.4% chance to 2HKO
17
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
1,094.853
36.6%
Standard error 2.47 points
▾
252+ Atk Ho-Oh Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 184-217 (41.4 - 48.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
18
Kingambit
DarkSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
283.843
46.2%
Standard error 5.05 points
▾
252+ Atk Kingambit Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 252-298 (56.7 - 67.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
19
Ditto
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
720.95
37.6%
Standard error 3.03 points
▾
Ditto vs. Arceus: 0-0 (0 - 0%)
20
Glalie
Ice
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
23.603
64.2%
Standard error 9.87 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Glalie: 135-160 (37 - 43.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
21
Clefable
Fairy
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.994
65.0%
Standard error 10.41 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Extreme Speed vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 144-169 (36.5 - 42.8%) -- 97.8% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
22
Glimmora
RockPoison
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
469.041
38.2%
Standard error 3.71 points
▾
0- SpA Glimmora Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 63-75 (14.1 - 16.8%) -- possible 6HKO
23
Arceus-Fairy
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
233.142
45.0%
Standard error 5.51 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
24
Kyogre
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
348.423
39.9%
Standard error 4.35 points
▾
252+ SpA Kyogre Water Spout (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus in Rain: 286-337 (64.4 - 75.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
25
Chien-Pao
DarkIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
235.35
40.4%
Standard error 5.49 points
▾
252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Sacred Sword vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 232-274 (52.2 - 61.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
26
Arceus-Poison
Poison
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
61.526
53.9%
Standard error 8.95 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxic Plate Arceus-Poison Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 117-138 (26.3 - 31%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
27
Terapagos
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
128.984
44.9%
Standard error 7.42 points
▾
252+ SpA Terapagos Tera Starstorm vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 88-105 (19.8 - 23.6%) -- possible 5HKO
28
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
397.061
30.5%
Standard error 3.93 points
▾
252+ Atk Ting-Lu Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 136-162 (30.6 - 36.4%) -- 58.2% chance to 3HKO
29
Incineroar
FireDark
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
287.68
33.6%
Standard error 4.77 points
▾
252+ Atk Incineroar Drain Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 142-168 (31.9 - 37.8%) -- 93.3% chance to 3HKO
30
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
423.299
29.5%
Standard error 3.78 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 124-147 (27.9 - 33.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
Ranked #4 with 40.48% usage. Sorted by conservative score.