Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Mamoswine
IceGround
OFFENSIVE CHECK
68.384
93.8%
Standard error 4.06 points
02
Koraidon
FightingDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
963.333
69.7%
Standard error 2.56 points
▾
252+ Atk Orichalcum Pulse Koraidon Collision Course (133.3251953125 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 1454-1712 (463 - 545.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
03
Kingambit
DarkSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
228.607
75.8%
Standard error 4.83 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Kingambit: 6-8 (1.4 - 1.9%)
04
Arceus-Ground
Ground
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
480.341
70.6%
Standard error 3.56 points
▾
05
Arceus
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
877.744
66.2%
Standard error 2.75 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Arceus: 6-8 (1.3 - 1.8%)
06
Calyrex-Shadow
PsychicGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
983.717
64.9%
Standard error 2.63 points
▾
252+ SpA Calyrex-Shadow Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 382-450 (121.6 - 143.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
07
Kyurem-Black
DragonIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
81.129
78.3%
Standard error 6.18 points
▾
252+ Atk Kyurem-Black Outrage vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 586-690 (186.6 - 219.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
08
Chien-Pao
DarkIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
126.46
78.0%
Standard error 6.30 points
▾
252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Sacred Sword vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 606-714 (192.9 - 227.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
09
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
194.552
73.4%
Standard error 5.40 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 1064-1252 (338.8 - 398.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
10
Ursaluna-Bloodmoon
GroundNormal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
68.919
78.3%
Standard error 6.80 points
▾
11
Clefable
Fairy
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
21.616
80.9%
Standard error 8.46 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 9-11 (2.2 - 2.7%)
12
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
615.25
55.4%
Standard error 3.47 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Ho-Oh: 16-20 (3.8 - 4.8%)
13
Miraidon
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
1,848.069
48.9%
Standard error 2.01 points
▾
252+ SpA Hadron Engine Miraidon Electro Drift vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Smeargle in Electric Terrain: 364-429 (115.9 - 136.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
14
Kyogre
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
239.23
61.9%
Standard error 5.41 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Kyogre: 16-20 (3.9 - 4.9%)
15
Skeledirge
FireGhost
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
170.387
64.5%
Standard error 6.33 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skeledirge: 7-9 (1.6 - 2.1%)
16
Arceus-Water
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
46.435
72.6%
Standard error 8.98 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Arceus-Water: 12-16 (2.7 - 3.6%)
17
Grafaiai
PoisonNormal
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
28.928
69.9%
Standard error 8.52 points
▾
252+ Atk Grafaiai Low Kick (80 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 342-404 (108.9 - 128.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
18
Flutter Mane
GhostFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
159.047
56.1%
Standard error 6.61 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Smeargle: 201-237 (64 - 75.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
19
Smeargle
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
399.874
45.0%
Standard error 4.20 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 22-26 (7 - 8.2%)
20
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
383.051
45.3%
Standard error 4.37 points
▾
252+ Atk Ting-Lu Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 355-418 (113 - 133.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
21
Clodsire
PoisonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
203.738
50.8%
Standard error 6.02 points
▾
252+ Atk Clodsire Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 277-327 (88.2 - 104.1%) -- 25% chance to OHKO
22
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
233.471
47.0%
Standard error 5.62 points
▾
252+ Atk Iron Treads Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 360-424 (114.6 - 135%) -- guaranteed OHKO
23
Calyrex-Ice
PsychicIce
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
113.902
55.8%
Standard error 8.01 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Calyrex-Ice: 5-7 (1.2 - 1.7%)
24
Hatterene
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
263.027
43.8%
Standard error 5.25 points
▾
252+ SpA Hatterene Misty Explosion vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Smeargle: 211-250 (67.1 - 79.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
25
Grimmsnarl
DarkFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
209.149
45.7%
Standard error 5.82 points
▾
252+ Atk Grimmsnarl Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 339-400 (107.9 - 127.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
26
Lapras
WaterIce
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
72.145
60.2%
Standard error 9.82 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Lapras: 16-20 (3.4 - 4.3%)
27
Deoxys-Speed
Psychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
106.909
52.6%
Standard error 8.18 points
▾
252+ SpA Deoxys-Speed Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Smeargle: 231-273 (73.5 - 86.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
28
Ribombee
BugFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
169.044
46.1%
Standard error 6.62 points
▾
252+ SpA Ribombee Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Smeargle: 157-186 (50 - 59.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
29
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
167.506
44.0%
Standard error 6.59 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Smeargle: 322-379 (102.5 - 120.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
30
Espeon
Psychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
27.058
55.1%
Standard error 9.56 points
▾
252+ SpA Espeon Psychic vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Smeargle: 184-217 (58.5 - 69.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Ranked #5 with 27.16% usage. Sorted by conservative score.