Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Calyrex-Shadow
PsychicGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
219.712
69.9%
Standard error 3.09 points
▾
252+ SpA Calyrex-Shadow Astral Barrage vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 302-356 (96.1 - 113.3%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
02
Arceus
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
178.058
69.1%
Standard error 3.46 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 111-132 (25 - 29.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
03
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
70.096
75.0%
Standard error 5.17 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Iron Head vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 774-912 (246.4 - 290.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
04
Kingambit
DarkSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
55.761
76.8%
Standard error 5.65 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Mystical Fire vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kingambit: 148-176 (36.6 - 43.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
05
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
129.176
67.0%
Standard error 4.14 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Mystical Fire vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Iron Treads: 168-198 (43.7 - 51.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
06
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
226.766
62.7%
Standard error 3.21 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ho-Oh: 208-248 (50 - 59.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
07
Clodsire
PoisonGround
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
56.948
70.8%
Standard error 6.02 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Clodsire: 106-126 (22.8 - 27.1%) -- 46.7% chance to 4HKO
08
Koraidon
FightingDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
228.357
59.0%
Standard error 3.25 points
▾
252+ Atk Orichalcum Pulse Koraidon Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane in Sun: 476-561 (151.5 - 178.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
09
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
67.959
65.1%
Standard error 5.78 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Vessel of Ruin Ting-Lu: 218-260 (42.4 - 50.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
10
Arceus-Ground
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
107.077
54.2%
Standard error 4.81 points
▾
0- Atk Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 220-259 (70 - 82.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
11
Miraidon
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
537.015
36.8%
Standard error 2.08 points
▾
252+ SpA Hadron Engine Miraidon Electro Drift vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane in Electric Terrain: 186-220 (59.2 - 70%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
12
Flutter Mane
GhostFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
84.511
48.8%
Standard error 5.44 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 174-206 (55.4 - 65.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
13
Glimmora
RockPoison
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
68.842
50.4%
Standard error 6.03 points
▾
0- SpA Glimmora Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 58-69 (18.4 - 21.9%) -- possible 5HKO
14
Kyogre
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
21.176
66.1%
Standard error 10.29 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kyogre: 100-118 (24.7 - 29.2%) -- 99.9% chance to 4HKO
15
Smeargle
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
167.659
32.0%
Standard error 3.60 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 16-19 (5 - 6%)
16
Deoxys-Speed
Psychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
55.07
25.5%
Standard error 5.88 points
▾
252+ SpA Deoxys-Speed Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 118-141 (37.5 - 44.9%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
17
Hatterene
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
47.349
27.5%
Standard error 6.49 points
▾
252+ SpA Hatterene Psychic Noise vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 82-97 (26.1 - 30.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
18
Eternatus
PoisonDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
23.306
39.6%
Standard error 10.13 points
▾
252+ SpA Eternatus Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 102-121 (32.4 - 38.5%) -- 98.4% chance to 3HKO
19
Alomomola
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
49.007
3.2%
Standard error 2.51 points
▾
252+ Atk Alomomola Flip Turn vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 121-144 (38.5 - 45.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
20
Ribombee
BugFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
23.88
25.0%
Standard error 8.86 points
▾
252+ SpA Ribombee Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 81-96 (25.7 - 30.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
21
Grimmsnarl
DarkFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
20.553
24.2%
Standard error 9.44 points
▾
252+ Atk Grimmsnarl Spirit Break vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 205-243 (65.2 - 77.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
22
Ditto
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
24.14
14.3%
Standard error 7.12 points
▾
Ditto vs. Flutter Mane: 0-0 (0 - 0%)
23
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
23.493
12.7%
Standard error 6.86 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 234-276 (74.5 - 87.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
24
Espathra
Psychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
20.434
13.2%
Standard error 7.50 points
▾
252+ SpA Espathra Lumina Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 70-84 (22.2 - 26.7%) -- 21.3% chance to 4HKO
Ranked #21 with 9.03% usage. Sorted by conservative score.