Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
46.03
90.8%
Standard error 5.77 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Iron Head vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 774-912 (246.4 - 290.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO
02
Calyrex-Shadow
PsychicGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
227.686
70.8%
Standard error 5.10 points
▾
252+ SpA Calyrex-Shadow Astral Barrage vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 302-356 (96.1 - 113.3%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
03
Koraidon
FightingDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
261.108
64.4%
Standard error 5.04 points
▾
252+ Atk Orichalcum Pulse Koraidon Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane in Sun: 476-561 (151.5 - 178.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
04
Arceus
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
235.444
64.8%
Standard error 5.28 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 111-132 (25 - 29.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
05
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
203.252
66.4%
Standard error 5.69 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ho-Oh: 208-248 (50 - 59.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
06
Kingambit
DarkSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
23.324
76.9%
Standard error 8.73 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Mystical Fire vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kingambit: 148-176 (36.6 - 43.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
07
Arceus-Ground
Ground
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
152.348
64.5%
Standard error 6.60 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 111-132 (25 - 29.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
08
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
110.397
60.0%
Standard error 8.07 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Mystical Fire vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Iron Treads: 168-198 (43.7 - 51.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
09
Grimmsnarl
DarkFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
74.928
55.7%
Standard error 8.00 points
▾
252+ Atk Grimmsnarl Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 246-291 (78.3 - 92.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
10
Glimmora
RockPoison
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
148.723
47.2%
Standard error 6.99 points
▾
0- SpA Glimmora Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 58-69 (18.4 - 21.9%) -- possible 5HKO
11
Miraidon
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
565.577
31.6%
Standard error 3.37 points
▾
252+ SpA Hadron Engine Miraidon Electro Drift vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane in Electric Terrain: 186-220 (59.2 - 70%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
12
Flutter Mane
GhostFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
112.112
50.0%
Standard error 8.11 points
▾
252+ SpA Flutter Mane Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 174-206 (55.4 - 65.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
13
Hatterene
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
64.482
51.5%
Standard error 8.53 points
▾
252+ SpA Hatterene Misty Explosion vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 109-129 (34.7 - 41%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
14
Ribombee
BugFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
38.337
49.6%
Standard error 8.08 points
▾
252+ SpA Ribombee Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 81-96 (25.7 - 30.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
15
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
88.377
50.1%
Standard error 9.11 points
▾
252+ Atk Ting-Lu Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 258-304 (82.1 - 96.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
16
Clodsire
PoisonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
21.093
54.6%
Standard error 10.84 points
▾
252+ Atk Clodsire Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 202-238 (64.3 - 75.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
17
Smeargle
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
159.047
31.1%
Standard error 6.19 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Flutter Mane: 16-19 (5 - 6%)
18
Terapagos
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
21.564
33.7%
Standard error 10.18 points
▾
252+ SpA Terapagos Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Flutter Mane: 40-48 (12.7 - 15.2%) -- possible 7HKO
19
Ditto
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
22.497
11.1%
Standard error 6.61 points
▾
Ditto vs. Flutter Mane: 0-0 (0 - 0%)
Ranked #20 with 7.87% usage. Sorted by conservative score.