Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Arceus-Ground
Ground
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
139.81
80.9%
Standard error 5.67 points
▾
252+ Atk Incineroar Drain Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Arceus-Ground: 53-63 (11.9 - 14.1%) -- possible 8HKO
02
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
31.889
76.3%
Standard error 7.53 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 522-616 (132.4 - 156.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
03
Koraidon
FightingDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
377.797
62.8%
Standard error 4.26 points
▾
252+ Atk Orichalcum Pulse Koraidon Collision Course (133.3251953125 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 714-842 (181.2 - 213.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
04
Glimmora
RockPoison
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
98.65
70.2%
Standard error 7.92 points
▾
0- SpA Glimmora Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Incineroar: 152-180 (38.5 - 45.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
05
Miraidon
ElectricDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
250.355
52.3%
Standard error 5.45 points
▾
252+ SpA Hadron Engine Miraidon Electro Drift vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Incineroar in Electric Terrain: 246-291 (62.4 - 73.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
06
Arceus
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
287.68
49.3%
Standard error 5.05 points
▾
252+ Atk Arceus Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 248-292 (62.9 - 74.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
07
Gliscor
GroundFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.836
63.4%
Standard error 10.08 points
▾
252+ Atk Incineroar Fake Out vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Gliscor: 28-33 (7.9 - 9.3%)
08
Calyrex-Shadow
PsychicGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
314.87
41.7%
Standard error 4.79 points
▾
252+ SpA Calyrex-Shadow Astral Barrage vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Incineroar: 99-117 (25.1 - 29.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
09
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
56.652
58.8%
Standard error 9.22 points
▾
252+ Atk Incineroar Drain Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Iron Treads: 106-126 (27.6 - 32.8%) -- 72.9% chance to 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
10
Chien-Pao
DarkIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
25.517
59.6%
Standard error 9.71 points
▾
252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Sacred Sword vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 296-350 (75.1 - 88.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
11
Kyogre
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
48.535
55.9%
Standard error 10.03 points
▾
252+ Atk Incineroar Drain Punch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Kyogre: 64-76 (15.8 - 18.8%) -- possible 6HKO
12
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
85.346
50.5%
Standard error 9.29 points
▾
252+ Atk Ting-Lu Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 350-414 (88.8 - 105%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
13
Smeargle
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
97.842
44.5%
Standard error 8.57 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Nuzzle vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 11-13 (2.7 - 3.2%)
14
Clodsire
PoisonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
57.637
43.9%
Standard error 8.94 points
▾
252+ Atk Clodsire Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 272-324 (69 - 82.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
15
Skeledirge
FireGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
63.316
42.8%
Standard error 8.67 points
▾
252+ SpA Skeledirge Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Incineroar: 148-176 (37.5 - 44.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
16
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
203.343
29.1%
Standard error 5.49 points
▾
252+ Atk Ho-Oh Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 262-310 (66.4 - 78.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
17
Kingambit
DarkSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
103.436
33.3%
Standard error 7.88 points
▾
252+ Atk Kingambit Low Kick (80 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 216-256 (54.8 - 64.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
18
Ditto
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
120.777
22.6%
Standard error 6.54 points
▾
Ditto vs. Incineroar: 0-0 (0 - 0%)
19
Grimmsnarl
DarkFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
105.945
24.8%
Standard error 7.19 points
▾
252+ Atk Grimmsnarl Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 168-198 (42.6 - 50.2%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO
20
Hatterene
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
73.312
19.4%
Standard error 7.85 points
▾
252+ SpA Hatterene Misty Explosion vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Incineroar: 144-171 (36.5 - 43.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
21
Alomomola
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
23.78
21.8%
Standard error 8.47 points
▾
252+ Atk Alomomola Flip Turn vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 164-194 (41.6 - 49.2%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Ranked #24 with 7.33% usage. Sorted by conservative score.