Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Eternatus
PoisonDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
293.486
69.7%
Standard error 4.60 points
▾
+1 252+ SpA Eternatus Meteor Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Water: 148-175 (33.3 - 39.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
02
Kyogre
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
913.326
61.9%
Standard error 2.76 points
▾
252+ SpA Splash Plate Arceus-Water Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kyogre in Rain: 87-103 (21.5 - 25.4%) -- 0.6% chance to 4HKO
03
Garganacl
Rock
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.414
81.8%
Standard error 8.15 points
▾
252+ SpA Splash Plate Arceus-Water Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Garganacl: 314-372 (77.7 - 92%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
04
Blissey
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
173.639
71.9%
Standard error 5.84 points
▾
252+ SpA Splash Plate Arceus-Water Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Blissey: 118-141 (16.5 - 19.7%) -- possible 6HKO
05
Arceus-Electric
Electric
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
85.578
76.5%
Standard error 7.81 points
▾
252+ SpA Splash Plate Arceus-Water Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Electric: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
06
Clodsire
PoisonGround
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
154.429
68.2%
Standard error 6.40 points
▾
07
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
355.154
60.2%
Standard error 4.48 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Wild Charge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 306-362 (68.9 - 81.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
08
Koraidon
FightingDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
1,165.075
49.0%
Standard error 2.52 points
▾
252+ Atk Orichalcum Pulse Koraidon Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 253-298 (56.9 - 67.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
09
Lunala
PsychicGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
304.486
56.8%
Standard error 4.89 points
▾
+1 252+ SpA Lunala Meteor Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Water: 142-168 (31.9 - 37.8%) -- 93.9% chance to 3HKO
10
Terapagos
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
59.431
64.1%
Standard error 8.57 points
▾
252+ SpA Splash Plate Arceus-Water Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Terapagos: 163-193 (42.4 - 50.2%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO
11
Ursaluna
GroundNormal
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
61.566
60.6%
Standard error 8.69 points
▾
252+ Atk Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 195-229 (43.9 - 51.5%) -- 8.6% chance to 2HKO
12
Flutter Mane
GhostFairy
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
23.343
63.0%
Standard error 9.99 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Flutter Mane Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Water: 212-250 (47.7 - 56.3%) -- 85.2% chance to 2HKO
13
Necrozma-Dusk-Mane
PsychicSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
393.413
39.5%
Standard error 4.25 points
▾
252+ SpA Necrozma-Dusk-Mane Photon Geyser vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Water: 103-123 (23.1 - 27.7%) -- 73.7% chance to 4HKO
14
Arceus
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
236.536
43.9%
Standard error 5.57 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 210-247 (47.2 - 55.6%) -- 76.2% chance to 2HKO
15
Arceus-Water
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
176.524
47.0%
Standard error 6.48 points
▾
252+ SpA Splash Plate Arceus-Water Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Water: 64-76 (14.4 - 17.1%) -- possible 6HKO
16
Arceus-Fairy
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
200.558
44.0%
Standard error 5.96 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Water: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
17
Arceus-Ghost
Ghost
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.667
61.8%
Standard error 10.69 points
▾
252+ SpA Splash Plate Arceus-Water Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ghost: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
18
Giratina-Origin
GhostDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
163.171
42.0%
Standard error 6.62 points
▾
252+ Atk Griseous Core Giratina-Origin Poltergeist vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 192-226 (43.2 - 50.9%) -- 3.1% chance to 2HKO
19
Deoxys-Attack
Psychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
58.226
51.5%
Standard error 9.05 points
▾
252+ SpA Deoxys-Attack Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Water: 204-241 (45.9 - 54.2%) -- 54.3% chance to 2HKO
20
Kyurem-Black
DragonIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.793
57.6%
Standard error 10.84 points
▾
252+ Atk Kyurem-Black Fusion Bolt vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 250-296 (56.3 - 66.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
21
Calyrex-Ice
PsychicIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
254.942
29.5%
Standard error 4.90 points
▾
252+ Atk Calyrex-Ice Seed Bomb vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 196-232 (44.1 - 52.2%) -- 16.8% chance to 2HKO
22
Arceus-Ground
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
159.378
30.4%
Standard error 6.22 points
▾
252+ Atk Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 174-205 (39.1 - 46.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
23
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
595.976
15.1%
Standard error 2.51 points
▾
252+ Atk Ho-Oh Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 184-217 (41.4 - 48.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
24
Hatterene
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
182.55
21.2%
Standard error 5.07 points
▾
252+ SpA Hatterene Misty Explosion vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Water: 118-141 (26.5 - 31.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
25
Kingambit
DarkSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
64.963
27.7%
Standard error 7.85 points
▾
252+ Atk Black Glasses Kingambit Kowtow Cleave vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 160-190 (36 - 42.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
26
Grimmsnarl
DarkFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
23.027
34.3%
Standard error 9.89 points
▾
252+ Atk Grimmsnarl Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 130-154 (29.2 - 34.6%) -- 6.3% chance to 3HKO
27
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
176.098
6.9%
Standard error 3.13 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 124-147 (27.9 - 33.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
28
Alomomola
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
100.422
6.0%
Standard error 3.31 points
▾
252+ Atk Alomomola Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 64-76 (14.4 - 17.1%) -- possible 6HKO
29
Groudon
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
117.185
15.1%
Standard error 5.63 points
▾
252+ Atk Groudon Precipice Blades vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 204-241 (45.9 - 54.2%) -- 54.3% chance to 2HKO
30
Landorus-Therian
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
105.5
9.5%
Standard error 4.87 points
▾
252+ Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Water: 166-196 (37.3 - 44.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
Ranked #17 with 9.30% usage. Sorted by conservative score.