Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Dondozo
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
134.013
73.8%
Standard error 6.45 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 160-189 (31.7 - 37.5%) -- 87.5% chance to 3HKO
02
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
1,152.458
57.5%
Standard error 2.52 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 408-482 (91.8 - 108.5%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
03
Koraidon
FightingDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
2,286.834
48.1%
Standard error 1.81 points
▾
252+ Atk Orichalcum Pulse Koraidon Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 506-596 (113.9 - 134.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
04
Calyrex-Ice
PsychicIce
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
532.17
55.6%
Standard error 3.72 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Calyrex-Ice: 132-156 (32.6 - 38.6%) -- 98.6% chance to 3HKO
05
Arceus
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
728.251
48.4%
Standard error 3.20 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 210-247 (47.2 - 55.6%) -- 76.2% chance to 2HKO
06
Garganacl
Rock
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
63.038
67.1%
Standard error 8.02 points
▾
252+ Atk Arceus Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Garganacl: 136-162 (33.6 - 40%) -- 32.3% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
07
Skeledirge
FireGhost
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
194.138
56.6%
Standard error 6.09 points
▾
252+ Atk Arceus Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skeledirge: 164-194 (39.8 - 47%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
08
Arceus-Water
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
236.536
54.0%
Standard error 5.60 points
▾
252+ SpA Splash Plate Arceus-Water Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
09
Necrozma-Dusk-Mane
PsychicSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
980.652
42.3%
Standard error 2.73 points
▾
0- Atk Necrozma-Dusk-Mane Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 123-145 (27.7 - 32.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
10
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
947.21
40.7%
Standard error 2.75 points
▾
252+ Atk Ho-Oh Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 184-217 (41.4 - 48.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
11
Lunala
PsychicGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
1,161.426
37.7%
Standard error 2.45 points
▾
252+ SpA Lunala Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 192-226 (43.2 - 50.9%) -- 3.1% chance to 2HKO
12
Kingambit
DarkSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
229.294
50.7%
Standard error 5.69 points
▾
252+ Atk Kingambit Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 252-298 (56.7 - 67.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
13
Arceus-Fairy
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
363.65
44.6%
Standard error 4.49 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
14
Kyogre
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
1,059.272
36.8%
Standard error 2.56 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Kyogre Water Spout (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus in Rain: 427-504 (96.1 - 113.5%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
15
Arceus-Ghost
Ghost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
202.514
47.1%
Standard error 6.05 points
▾
252+ SpA Arceus-Ghost Aura Sphere vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 116-138 (26.1 - 31%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
16
Wo-Chien
DarkGrass
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.313
62.9%
Standard error 10.23 points
▾
252+ Atk Silk Scarf Arceus Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tablets of Ruin Wo-Chien: 132-156 (35.2 - 41.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
17
Arceus-Ground
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
359.046
38.6%
Standard error 4.44 points
▾
252+ Atk Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 174-205 (39.1 - 46.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
18
Ursaluna
GroundNormal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
77.201
51.3%
Standard error 7.81 points
▾
252+ Atk Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 195-229 (43.9 - 51.5%) -- 8.6% chance to 2HKO
19
Sableye
DarkGhost
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
57.295
56.0%
Standard error 9.16 points
▾
252+ Atk Arceus Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Sableye: 98-116 (32.2 - 38.1%) -- 96.4% chance to 3HKO
20
Eternatus
PoisonDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
500.052
33.1%
Standard error 3.63 points
▾
+1 252+ SpA Eternatus Meteor Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 148-175 (33.3 - 39.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
21
Arceus-Electric
Electric
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
173.887
44.1%
Standard error 6.42 points
▾
252+ SpA Zap Plate Arceus-Electric Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
22
Deoxys-Attack
Psychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
203.963
39.7%
Standard error 5.91 points
▾
0- Atk Deoxys-Attack Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 224-264 (50.4 - 59.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
23
Giratina-Origin
GhostDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
338.504
31.7%
Standard error 4.35 points
▾
0- SpA Griseous Core Giratina-Origin Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 112-133 (25.2 - 29.9%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
24
Chien-Pao
DarkIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
28.876
51.4%
Standard error 9.30 points
▾
252+ Atk Life Orb Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Sacred Sword vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 302-356 (68 - 80.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
25
Ditto
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
138.65
42.2%
Standard error 7.20 points
▾
Ditto vs. Arceus: 0-0 (0 - 0%)
26
Flutter Mane
GhostFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
137.398
40.5%
Standard error 7.16 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Flutter Mane Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 168-198 (37.8 - 44.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
27
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
188.327
32.6%
Standard error 5.77 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 124-147 (27.9 - 33.1%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
28
Groudon
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
189.474
31.7%
Standard error 5.78 points
▾
252+ Atk Groudon Precipice Blades vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 204-241 (45.9 - 54.2%) -- 54.3% chance to 2HKO
29
Arceus-Flying
Flying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
20.854
51.0%
Standard error 10.95 points
▾
252+ SpA Sky Plate Arceus-Flying Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
30
Glimmora
RockPoison
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
140.747
33.7%
Standard error 6.71 points
▾
0- SpA Glimmora Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 70-84 (15.7 - 18.9%) -- possible 6HKO
Ranked #7 with 27.05% usage. Sorted by conservative score.