Is Incineroar viable in Gen 9 VGC 2026 Regulation F Best of 3?

Incineroar is ranked #1 in Gen 9 VGC 2026 Regulation F Best of 3 with 55.45% usage according to Smogon Feb 2026 - Apr 2026 data.

What beats Incineroar in Gen 9 VGC 2026 Regulation F Best of 3?

Tatsugiri has the strongest conservative score in this observed Feb 2026 - Apr 2026 sample. The target was knocked out or switched out in 76.6% of 34.22964437076616 relevant encounters. Standard error is 7.2 points. Sets and switch conditions can change the result.

How are Incineroar matchup checks ranked in Gen 9 VGC 2026 Regulation F Best of 3?

They are ranked by p minus four standard errors. Here, p is the observed fraction of relevant encounters where Incineroar was knocked out or switched out. This is not a set-specific battle guarantee.

Incineroar counters

Gen 9 VGC 2026 Regulation F Best of 3 · Sorted by p − 4 standard errors · Smogon source period Feb 2026 - Apr 2026 · Generated 2026-05-27

#0727 Incineroar

FireDark

USAGE 55.4% #1

ABILITYIntimidate

BASE STATS

HP 95

ATK 115

DEF 90

SPA 80

SPD 90

SPE 60

BST530

TYPE MATCHUPS

2×

WaterFightingGroundRock

½×

FireGrassIceGhostDarkSteel

0×

Psychic

Moves

Fake Out 100.0% Flare Blitz 90.6% Knock Off 77.9% Parting Shot 55.0% U-turn 44.6% Taunt 22.4% Helping Hand 4.7% Will-O-Wisp 2.0%

Items

Assault Vest 44.0% Safety Goggles 26.2% Sitrus Berry 14.7% Rocky Helmet 9.6% Shuca Berry 4.5% Clear Amulet 0.5% Covert Cloak 0.3% Ability Shield 0.2%

Abilities

Intimidate100.0%Blaze0.0%

Tera Types

Grass 45.8% Ghost 34.1% Water 6.9% Flying 5.9% Fairy 3.8% Bug 2.5% Poison 0.6% Dragon 0.2%

Common Teammates

Urshifu-Rapid-Strike66.3%

Leading observed checks

Open a matchup for a separate set-based damage estimate, or browse uploaded teams with both Pokémon.

Checks & Counters

Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.

How to read this table

Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.

# Checker Encounters Conservative score Target KO or switch rate

Tatsugiri

DragonWater OFFENSIVE CHECK View matchup

34.23

47.7

76.6% Standard error 7.24 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Tatsugiri Muddy Water vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 84-98 (41.5 - 48.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

View Tatsugiri counters →

Urshifu-Rapid-Strike

FightingWater SOFT CHECK View matchup

336.895

43.6

54.5% Standard error 2.71 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Mystic Water Urshifu-Rapid-Strike Surging Strikes (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar on a critical hit: 294-348 (145.5 - 172.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

View Urshifu-Rapid-Strike counters →

Ogerpon-Wellspring

GrassWater OFFENSIVE CHECK View matchup

127.404

38.0

55.6% Standard error 4.40 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Ivy Cudgel vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 234-276 (115.8 - 136.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO

View Ogerpon-Wellspring counters →

Landorus

GroundFlying SOFT CHECK View matchup

148.814

34.5

50.9% Standard error 4.10 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Life Orb Sheer Force Landorus Sandsear Storm vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 151-179 (74.7 - 88.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

View Landorus counters →

Ursaluna

GroundNormal SOFT CHECK View matchup

92.763

34.2

54.9% Standard error 5.17 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Ursaluna Headlong Rush vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 260-308 (128.7 - 152.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

View Ursaluna counters →

Torkoal

Fire DEFENSIVE CHECK View matchup

43.089

33.0

62.5% Standard error 7.37 points

DAMAGE CALCSun

252+ Atk Incineroar Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Torkoal: 49-58 (27.6 - 32.7%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

View Torkoal counters →

Incineroar

FireDark SOFT CHECK View matchup

553.005

31.9

40.3% Standard error 2.09 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Incineroar Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 56-66 (27.7 - 32.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

View Incineroar counters →

Urshifu

FightingDark OFFENSIVE CHECK View matchup

68.678

31.8

55.8% Standard error 5.99 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Choice Band Urshifu Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 372-438 (184.1 - 216.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

View Urshifu counters →

Ogerpon-Hearthflame

GrassFire SOFT CHECK View matchup

120.262

30.4

48.7% Standard error 4.56 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Hearthflame Mask Ogerpon-Hearthflame Stomping Tantrum vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 118-140 (58.4 - 69.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

View Ogerpon-Hearthflame counters →

Rillaboom

Grass SOFT CHECK View matchup

211.885

29.8

43.4% Standard error 3.40 points

DAMAGE CALCGrassy Terrain

252+ Atk Rillaboom High Horsepower vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 126-150 (62.3 - 74.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Grassy Terrain recovery

View Rillaboom counters →

Flutter Mane

GhostFairy SOFT CHECK View matchup

190.512

28.5

42.9% Standard error 3.59 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Flutter Mane Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 54-64 (26.7 - 31.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

View Flutter Mane counters →

Chien-Pao

DarkIce SOFT CHECK View matchup

102.194

27.7

47.5% Standard error 4.94 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Sacred Sword vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 158-186 (78.2 - 92%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

View Chien-Pao counters →

Raging Bolt

ElectricDragon SOFT CHECK View matchup

119.896

26.0

44.1% Standard error 4.53 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Raging Bolt Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 66-78 (32.6 - 38.6%) -- 97.9% chance to 3HKO

View Raging Bolt counters →

Indeedee-F

PsychicNormal SOFT CHECK View matchup

79.911

25.9

48.3% Standard error 5.59 points

DAMAGE CALCPsychic Terrain

252+ SpA Indeedee-F Dazzling Gleam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 22-26 (10.8 - 12.8%) -- possible 8HKO

View Indeedee-F counters →

Amoonguss

GrassPoison SOFT CHECK View matchup

174.325

25.1

39.9% Standard error 3.71 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Amoonguss Sludge Bomb vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 33-40 (16.3 - 19.8%) -- possible 6HKO

View Amoonguss counters →

Regidrago

Dragon SOFT CHECK View matchup

46.098

25.0

54.4% Standard error 7.34 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Life Orb Dragon's Maw Regidrago Dragon Energy (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 118-140 (58.4 - 69.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

View Regidrago counters →

Dragonite

DragonFlying SOFT CHECK View matchup

57.196

24.7

51.2% Standard error 6.61 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Choice Band Dragonite Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 210-248 (103.9 - 122.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO

View Dragonite counters →

Farigiraf

NormalPsychic SOFT CHECK View matchup

64.021

24.3

49.3% Standard error 6.25 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Farigiraf Hyper Voice vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 40-48 (19.8 - 23.7%) -- possible 5HKO

View Farigiraf counters →

Gholdengo

SteelGhost SOFT CHECK View matchup

78.293

20.8

43.2% Standard error 5.60 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Gholdengo Power Gem vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 54-64 (26.7 - 31.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO

View Gholdengo counters →

Chi-Yu

DarkFire SOFT CHECK View matchup

35.164

19.8

53.4% Standard error 8.41 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Beads of Ruin Chi-Yu Overheat vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 43-51 (21.2 - 25.2%) -- 0.2% chance to 4HKO

View Chi-Yu counters →

Whimsicott

GrassFairy SOFT CHECK View matchup

38.943

19.0

51.0% Standard error 8.01 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Whimsicott Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 33-40 (16.3 - 19.8%) -- possible 6HKO

View Whimsicott counters →

Iron Crown

SteelPsychic SOFT CHECK View matchup

45.064

16.1

45.8% Standard error 7.42 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Iron Crown Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 76-90 (37.6 - 44.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

View Iron Crown counters →

Ogerpon-Cornerstone

GrassRock OFFENSIVE CHECK View matchup

21.7

16.0

58.4% Standard error 10.58 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Cornerstone Mask Ogerpon-Cornerstone Ivy Cudgel vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 234-276 (115.8 - 136.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO

View Ogerpon-Cornerstone counters →

Roaring Moon

DragonDark SOFT CHECK View matchup

28.969

15.2

52.3% Standard error 9.28 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Roaring Moon Scale Shot (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 84-102 (41.5 - 50.4%) -- 0.1% chance to 2HKO

View Roaring Moon counters →

Landorus-Therian

GroundFlying SOFT CHECK View matchup

27.847

14.5

52.4% Standard error 9.46 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Choice Band Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 332-392 (164.3 - 194%) -- guaranteed OHKO

View Landorus-Therian counters →

Tornadus

Flying SOFT CHECK View matchup

79.05

14.1

35.6% Standard error 5.39 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Tornadus Bleakwind Storm vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 48-57 (23.7 - 28.2%) -- 85.3% chance to 4HKO

View Tornadus counters →

Dondozo

Water SOFT CHECK View matchup

24.02

9.2

50.0% Standard error 10.20 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ Atk Dondozo Wave Crash vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Incineroar: 206-246 (101.9 - 121.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO

View Dondozo counters →

Porygon2

Normal SOFT CHECK View matchup

36.562

4.3

36.1% Standard error 7.94 points

DAMAGE CALC

252+ SpA Porygon2 Tera Blast (80 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Incineroar: 33-40 (16.3 - 19.8%) -- possible 6HKO

View Porygon2 counters →

Ranked #1 with 55.45% usage. Sorted by conservative score.