Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Skarmory
SteelFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
124.621
78.0%
Standard error 6.39 points
▾
252+ Atk Mold Breaker Excadrill Rock Blast (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Skarmory: 54-66 (16.1 - 19.7%) -- possible 6HKO
02
Donphan
Ground
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
42.953
78.2%
Standard error 8.88 points
▾
252+ Atk Mold Breaker Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Donphan: 118-139 (30.7 - 36.1%) -- 51.5% chance to 3HKO
03
Mandibuzz
DarkFlying
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
162.074
64.1%
Standard error 6.46 points
▾
252+ Atk Mold Breaker Excadrill Rock Blast (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Mandibuzz: 132-162 (31.1 - 38.2%) -- 98.9% chance to 3HKO
04
Talonflame
FireFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
34.126
69.5%
Standard error 7.88 points
▾
252+ Atk Talonflame Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 474-560 (111.7 - 132%) -- guaranteed OHKO
05
Sinistcha
GrassGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
25.931
71.1%
Standard error 8.90 points
▾
252+ SpA Sinistcha Shadow Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Excadrill: 129-153 (30.4 - 36%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
06
Lokix
BugDark
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
91.087
65.5%
Standard error 8.57 points
▾
252+ Atk Choice Band Lokix Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 333-393 (78.5 - 92.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
07
Thundurus-Therian
ElectricFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
23.056
68.5%
Standard error 9.67 points
▾
252+ SpA Thundurus-Therian Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Excadrill: 294-346 (69.3 - 81.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
08
Keldeo
WaterFighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
53.497
64.3%
Standard error 9.20 points
▾
252+ SpA Keldeo Secret Sword vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 458-542 (108 - 127.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
09
Hydrapple
GrassDragon
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
104.766
57.0%
Standard error 8.25 points
▾
252+ Atk Excadrill Iron Head vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Hydrapple: 100-118 (24 - 28.3%) -- 95.4% chance to 4HKO
10
Arcanine-Hisui
FireRock
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
26.392
55.8%
Standard error 9.67 points
▾
252+ Atk Choice Band Arcanine-Hisui Flare Blitz vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 894-1052 (210.8 - 248.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
11
Slither Wing
BugFighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
25.98
56.0%
Standard error 9.74 points
▾
252+ Atk Slither Wing Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 668-788 (157.5 - 185.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO
12
Hippowdon
Ground
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.981
59.6%
Standard error 10.71 points
▾
252+ Atk Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Hippowdon: 118-141 (28 - 33.5%) -- 0.2% chance to 3HKO
13
Sandy Shocks
ElectricGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
27.449
50.3%
Standard error 9.54 points
▾
252+ SpA Sandy Shocks Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Excadrill: 288-342 (67.9 - 80.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
14
Latios
DragonPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
153.778
37.1%
Standard error 6.71 points
▾
252+ SpA Soul Dew Latios Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Excadrill: 131-155 (30.8 - 36.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO after Leftovers recovery
15
Weavile
DarkIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
22.583
51.7%
Standard error 10.52 points
▾
252+ Atk Weavile Triple Axel (120 BP) (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 309-369 (72.8 - 87%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
16
Excadrill
GroundSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
72.673
48.5%
Standard error 10.10 points
▾
252+ Atk Excadrill Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 560-660 (132 - 155.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
17
Skeledirge
FireGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
25.536
34.3%
Standard error 9.40 points
▾
252+ SpA Skeledirge Torch Song vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Excadrill: 240-284 (56.6 - 66.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
18
Tinkaton
FairySteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
106.608
13.2%
Standard error 4.59 points
▾
252+ Atk Tinkaton Brick Break vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 190-224 (44.8 - 52.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
19
Slowking
WaterPsychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
26.458
24.5%
Standard error 8.37 points
▾
252+ SpA Slowking Scald vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Excadrill: 224-266 (52.8 - 62.7%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
20
Toxapex
PoisonWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
85.34
17.0%
Standard error 6.53 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Excadrill: 174-206 (41 - 48.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
21
Clodsire
PoisonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
57.425
12.3%
Standard error 5.97 points
▾
252+ Atk Clodsire Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Excadrill: 378-446 (89.1 - 105.1%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO
22
Blissey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
26.877
6.1%
Standard error 4.62 points
▾
Blissey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Excadrill: 100-100 (23.5 - 23.5%) -- guaranteed 6HKO after Leftovers recovery
23
Gardevoir
PsychicFairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
26.627
14.4%
Standard error 6.80 points
▾
252+ SpA Gardevoir Focus Blast vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Excadrill: 262-310 (61.7 - 73.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Ranked #2 with 26.46% usage. Sorted by conservative score.