Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Mewtwo-Mega-Y
Psychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
41.257
86.5%
Standard error 5.33 points
▾
252+ SpA Mewtwo-Mega-Y Psystrike vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 208-246 (46.8 - 55.4%) -- 71.1% chance to 2HKO
02
Kyogre-Primal
Water
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
253.245
67.3%
Standard error 2.95 points
▾
252+ SpA Kyogre-Primal Water Spout (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground in Heavy Rain: 656-774 (147.7 - 174.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
03
Marshadow
FightingGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
175.299
66.3%
Standard error 3.57 points
▾
252+ Atk Marshadow Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 178-211 (40 - 47.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
04
Calyrex-Ice
PsychicIce
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
63.981
72.0%
Standard error 5.61 points
▾
252+ SpA Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Calyrex-Ice: 123-145 (30.4 - 35.8%) -- 45.3% chance to 3HKO
05
Arceus
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
145.687
64.2%
Standard error 3.97 points
▾
252+ SpA Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
06
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
305.879
57.5%
Standard error 2.83 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 229-271 (51.5 - 61%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
07
Arceus-Dark
Dark
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
143.919
62.1%
Standard error 4.04 points
▾
252+ SpA Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Dark: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
08
Mewtwo-Mega-X
PsychicFighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
24.817
77.0%
Standard error 8.44 points
▾
252+ Atk Mewtwo-Mega-X Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 246-291 (55.4 - 65.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
09
Giratina-Origin
GhostDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
250.92
53.9%
Standard error 3.15 points
▾
252+ SpA Griseous Core Giratina-Origin Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 169-199 (38 - 44.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
10
Necrozma-Dusk-Mane
PsychicSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
181.074
52.4%
Standard error 3.71 points
▾
0- Atk Necrozma-Dusk-Mane Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 123-145 (27.7 - 32.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
11
Chien-Pao
DarkIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
34.476
68.0%
Standard error 7.95 points
▾
252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 330-390 (74.3 - 87.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
12
Arceus-Ground
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
240.963
48.4%
Standard error 3.22 points
▾
252+ SpA Arceus-Ground Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 130-154 (29.2 - 34.6%) -- 7.5% chance to 3HKO
13
Lunala
PsychicGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
101.738
54.7%
Standard error 4.94 points
▾
252+ SpA Lunala Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 127-151 (28.6 - 34%) -- 0.9% chance to 3HKO
14
Yveltal
DarkFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
425.324
42.8%
Standard error 2.40 points
▾
252+ SpA Life Orb Dark Aura Yveltal Dark Pulse vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 160-188 (36 - 42.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
15
Arceus-Fairy
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
93.388
51.5%
Standard error 5.17 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
16
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
613.84
37.0%
Standard error 1.95 points
▾
252+ Atk Ho-Oh Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 184-217 (41.4 - 48.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
17
Zygarde
DragonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
354.881
39.1%
Standard error 2.59 points
▾
252+ Atk Zygarde Thousand Arrows vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 115-136 (25.9 - 30.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
18
Lugia
PsychicFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
63.251
52.9%
Standard error 6.28 points
▾
252+ SpA Lugia Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 108-128 (24.3 - 28.8%) -- 99.1% chance to 4HKO
19
Eternatus
PoisonDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
210.858
40.3%
Standard error 3.38 points
▾
252+ SpA Eternatus Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 160-190 (36 - 42.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
20
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
102.554
44.8%
Standard error 4.91 points
▾
252+ Atk Ferrothorn Power Whip vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 296-350 (66.6 - 78.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
21
Kyurem-Black
DragonIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
28.077
61.6%
Standard error 9.18 points
▾
252+ Atk Kyurem-Black Icicle Spear (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 288-342 (64.8 - 77%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
22
Chansey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
61.945
49.5%
Standard error 6.35 points
▾
Chansey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Arceus-Ground: 100-100 (22.5 - 22.5%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
23
Deoxys-Attack
Psychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
24.669
61.0%
Standard error 9.82 points
▾
252+ SpA Life Orb Deoxys-Attack Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 265-313 (59.6 - 70.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
24
Garganacl
Rock
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
110.602
40.1%
Standard error 4.66 points
▾
252+ Atk Garganacl Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 85-101 (19.1 - 22.7%) -- possible 5HKO
25
Ditto
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
59.353
39.3%
Standard error 6.34 points
▾
Ditto vs. Arceus-Ground: 0-0 (0 - 0%)
26
Salamence-Mega
DragonFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
47.679
42.2%
Standard error 7.15 points
▾
252+ Atk Aerilate Salamence-Mega Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 240-283 (54 - 63.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
27
Shaymin-Sky
GrassFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
25.966
52.2%
Standard error 9.80 points
▾
252+ SpA Shaymin-Sky Seed Flare vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 258-306 (58.1 - 68.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
28
Dondozo
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
20.683
50.9%
Standard error 10.99 points
▾
252+ Atk Dondozo Wave Crash vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 306-362 (68.9 - 81.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
29
Groudon-Primal
GroundFire
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
506.355
11.0%
Standard error 1.39 points
▾
252+ Atk Groudon-Primal Precipice Blades vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 237-279 (53.3 - 62.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
30
Alomomola
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
148.986
8.2%
Standard error 2.25 points
▾
252+ Atk Alomomola Flip Turn vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 128-152 (28.8 - 34.2%) -- 1.8% chance to 3HKO
Ranked #11 with 16.77% usage. Sorted by conservative score.