Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Kyogre-Primal
Water
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
198.888
73.6%
Standard error 5.36 points
▾
252+ SpA Kyogre-Primal Water Spout (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground in Heavy Rain: 656-774 (147.7 - 174.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
02
Mewtwo-Mega-X
PsychicFighting
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
62.041
80.4%
Standard error 7.08 points
▾
252+ Atk Mewtwo-Mega-X Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 246-291 (55.4 - 65.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
03
Chien-Pao
DarkIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
52.441
81.2%
Standard error 7.60 points
▾
252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 330-390 (74.3 - 87.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
04
Kyogre
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
26.014
76.2%
Standard error 8.34 points
▾
0- Atk Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Kyogre: 148-175 (36.6 - 43.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
05
Shaymin-Sky
GrassFlying
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.709
77.5%
Standard error 8.76 points
▾
252+ SpA Shaymin-Sky Seed Flare vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 258-306 (58.1 - 68.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
06
Marshadow
FightingGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
194.714
64.2%
Standard error 5.94 points
▾
252+ Atk Marshadow Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 178-211 (40 - 47.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
07
Arceus
Normal
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
94.448
69.7%
Standard error 8.03 points
▾
252+ SpA Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
08
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
267.281
57.8%
Standard error 5.22 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Play Rough vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 229-271 (51.5 - 61%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
09
Giratina-Origin
GhostDragon
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
226.553
56.4%
Standard error 5.59 points
▾
252+ SpA Arceus-Ground Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Giratina-Origin: 146-174 (28.9 - 34.5%) -- 5.8% chance to 3HKO
10
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
74.67
64.0%
Standard error 7.76 points
▾
252+ SpA Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Ferrothorn: 133-157 (37.7 - 44.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
11
Deoxys-Attack
Psychic
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
24.191
67.4%
Standard error 9.53 points
▾
252+ SpA Life Orb Deoxys-Attack Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 265-313 (59.6 - 70.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
12
Yveltal
DarkFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
413.571
43.9%
Standard error 4.22 points
▾
252+ SpA Life Orb Dark Aura Yveltal Dark Pulse vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 160-188 (36 - 42.3%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
13
Eternatus
PoisonDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
180.427
50.7%
Standard error 6.20 points
▾
252+ SpA Eternatus Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 160-190 (36 - 42.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
14
Arceus-Dark
Dark
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
134.319
54.1%
Standard error 7.27 points
▾
252+ SpA Arceus-Dark Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 130-154 (29.2 - 34.6%) -- 7.5% chance to 3HKO
15
Arceus-Ground
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
186.814
49.5%
Standard error 6.25 points
▾
252+ SpA Arceus-Ground Ice Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 130-154 (29.2 - 34.6%) -- 7.5% chance to 3HKO
16
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
370.221
40.0%
Standard error 4.37 points
▾
252+ Atk Ho-Oh Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 184-217 (41.4 - 48.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
17
Necrozma-Dusk-Mane
PsychicSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
146.805
50.9%
Standard error 7.12 points
▾
0- Atk Necrozma-Dusk-Mane Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 123-145 (27.7 - 32.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
18
Zygarde
DragonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
260.581
39.9%
Standard error 5.24 points
▾
252+ Atk Zygarde Thousand Arrows vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 115-136 (25.9 - 30.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
19
Arceus-Fairy
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
80.004
49.7%
Standard error 7.87 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
20
Lunala
PsychicGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
45.507
54.7%
Standard error 10.39 points
▾
252+ SpA Lunala Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 127-151 (28.6 - 34%) -- 0.9% chance to 3HKO
21
Chansey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
24.263
50.0%
Standard error 10.15 points
▾
Chansey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Arceus-Ground: 100-100 (22.5 - 22.5%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
22
Dondozo
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
53.595
38.6%
Standard error 9.40 points
▾
252+ Atk Dondozo Liquidation vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 218-258 (49 - 58.1%) -- 95.3% chance to 2HKO
23
Groudon-Primal
GroundFire
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
398.616
11.8%
Standard error 2.78 points
▾
252+ Atk Groudon-Primal Precipice Blades vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 237-279 (53.3 - 62.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
24
Deoxys-Speed
Psychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
51.397
3.9%
Standard error 2.71 points
▾
252+ SpA Deoxys-Speed Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus-Ground: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
25
Alomomola
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
105.864
9.4%
Standard error 4.72 points
▾
252+ Atk Alomomola Flip Turn vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 128-152 (28.8 - 34.2%) -- 1.8% chance to 3HKO
26
Smeargle
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
21.947
14.6%
Standard error 7.53 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Rapid Spin vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 31-37 (6.9 - 8.3%)
27
Giratina
GhostDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
20.874
14.7%
Standard error 7.75 points
▾
252+ Atk Giratina Dragon Tail vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus-Ground: 76-91 (17.1 - 20.4%) -- possible 5HKO
Ranked #12 with 15.43% usage. Sorted by conservative score.