Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Dondozo
Water
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
106.606
78.6%
Standard error 3.97 points
▾
252+ Atk Life Orb Arceus Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Dondozo: 173-204 (34.3 - 40.4%) -- 44.9% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
02
Melmetal
Steel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
30.407
83.0%
Standard error 6.82 points
▾
252+ Atk Life Orb Arceus Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Melmetal: 164-195 (34.5 - 41.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
03
Marshadow
FightingGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
336.168
63.6%
Standard error 2.62 points
▾
252+ Atk Marshadow Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 356-422 (80.1 - 95%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
04
Zacian-Crowned
FairySteel
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
415.339
56.0%
Standard error 2.44 points
▾
+1 252+ Atk Zacian-Crowned Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 408-482 (91.8 - 108.5%) -- 50% chance to OHKO
05
Zygarde
DragonGround
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
248.767
49.0%
Standard error 3.17 points
▾
252+ Atk Zygarde Thousand Arrows vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 115-136 (25.9 - 30.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
06
Arceus
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
159.311
47.4%
Standard error 3.96 points
▾
252+ Atk Life Orb Arceus Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 226-266 (50.9 - 59.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
07
Necrozma-Dusk-Mane
PsychicSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
198.479
40.9%
Standard error 3.49 points
▾
0- Atk Necrozma-Dusk-Mane Sunsteel Strike vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 123-145 (27.7 - 32.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
08
Groudon-Primal
GroundFire
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
403.501
34.9%
Standard error 2.37 points
▾
252+ Atk Groudon-Primal Precipice Blades vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 237-279 (53.3 - 62.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
09
Yveltal
DarkFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
320.622
33.0%
Standard error 2.63 points
▾
0- Atk Life Orb Dark Aura Yveltal Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 177-211 (39.8 - 47.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
10
Ditto
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
103.94
41.3%
Standard error 4.83 points
▾
Ditto vs. Arceus: 0-0 (0 - 0%)
11
Garganacl
Rock
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
46.937
51.2%
Standard error 7.30 points
▾
0 Def Garganacl Body Press vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 124-148 (27.9 - 33.3%) -- 0.1% chance to 3HKO
12
Arceus-Dark
Dark
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
105.825
36.3%
Standard error 4.68 points
▾
252+ SpA Dread Plate Arceus-Dark Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
13
Eternatus
PoisonDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
151.617
32.5%
Standard error 3.80 points
▾
252+ SpA Eternatus Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 160-190 (36 - 42.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
14
Ho-Oh
FireFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
262.331
26.4%
Standard error 2.72 points
▾
252+ Atk Ho-Oh Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 184-217 (41.4 - 48.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
15
Arceus-Ground
Ground
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
145.687
30.8%
Standard error 3.83 points
▾
252+ SpA Earth Plate Arceus-Ground Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
16
Chien-Pao
DarkIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
66.989
39.4%
Standard error 5.97 points
▾
252+ Atk Sword of Ruin Chien-Pao Sacred Sword vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 232-274 (52.2 - 61.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
17
Kyogre-Primal
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
133.558
30.4%
Standard error 3.98 points
▾
252+ SpA Kyogre-Primal Water Spout (150 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus in Heavy Rain: 328-387 (73.8 - 87.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
18
Ferrothorn
GrassSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
24.502
54.5%
Standard error 10.06 points
▾
252+ Atk Ferrothorn Power Whip vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 148-175 (33.3 - 39.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
19
Lunala
PsychicGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
135.767
29.7%
Standard error 3.92 points
▾
+1 252+ SpA Lunala Meteor Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 142-168 (31.9 - 37.8%) -- 93.9% chance to 3HKO
20
Giratina-Origin
GhostDragon
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
157.632
26.7%
Standard error 3.52 points
▾
252+ SpA Griseous Core Giratina-Origin Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 169-199 (38 - 44.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
21
Arceus-Fairy
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
54.461
35.4%
Standard error 6.48 points
▾
252+ SpA Pixie Plate Arceus-Fairy Judgment vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
22
Gholdengo
SteelGhost
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
28.794
45.8%
Standard error 9.28 points
▾
252+ SpA Gholdengo Make It Rain vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 139-165 (31.3 - 37.1%) -- 79% chance to 3HKO
23
Calyrex-Ice
PsychicIce
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
21.316
51.6%
Standard error 10.82 points
▾
252+ Atk Calyrex-Ice Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 294-348 (66.2 - 78.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
24
Alomomola
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
136.425
21.9%
Standard error 3.54 points
▾
252+ Atk Alomomola Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 69-82 (15.5 - 18.4%) -- possible 6HKO
25
Salamence-Mega
DragonFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
50.325
29.7%
Standard error 6.44 points
▾
252+ Atk Aerilate Salamence-Mega Double-Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 240-283 (54 - 63.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
26
Deoxys-Attack
Psychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
26.288
41.0%
Standard error 9.59 points
▾
0- Atk Life Orb Deoxys-Attack Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 291-343 (65.5 - 77.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
27
Chansey
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
22.739
0.0%
Standard error 0.46 points
▾
Chansey Seismic Toss vs. 252 HP Arceus: 100-100 (22.5 - 22.5%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
28
Kingambit
DarkSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
28.064
33.0%
Standard error 8.88 points
▾
252+ Atk Kingambit Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 252-298 (56.7 - 67.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
29
Deoxys-Speed
Psychic
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
57.042
14.3%
Standard error 4.64 points
▾
252+ SpA Deoxys-Speed Psycho Boost vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Arceus: 129-153 (29 - 34.4%) -- 3.1% chance to 3HKO
30
Smeargle
Normal
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
35.402
24.6%
Standard error 7.24 points
▾
252+ Atk Smeargle Rapid Spin vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Arceus: 31-37 (6.9 - 8.3%)
Ranked #9 with 20.77% usage. Sorted by conservative score.