Observed target KO or switch rate is upstream p: the fraction of relevant encounters where the target was knocked out or switched out. Standard error is upstream d. The conservative score is p − 4d. These ladder observations do not prove a set-specific counter.
How to read this table
Use encounter count and standard error to judge the sample. Damage estimates below use inferred sets and remain separate from the observed ladder metric.
#
Checker
Encounters
Conservative score
Target KO or switch rate
01
Volcarona
BugFire
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
36.933
90.7%
Standard error 4.78 points
▾
252+ SpA Volcarona Giga Drain vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 52-62 (17.1 - 20.3%) -- possible 5HKO
02
Iron Treads
GroundSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
23.484
84.1%
Standard error 7.55 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Iron Treads: 168-198 (43.7 - 51.5%) -- 8.6% chance to 2HKO
03
Kingambit
DarkSteel
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
56.08
76.4%
Standard error 7.88 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Kingambit: 75-88 (18.5 - 21.7%) -- possible 7HKO
04
Glimmora
RockPoison
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
25.175
77.5%
Standard error 8.32 points
▾
+1 252+ SpA Glimmora Meteor Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 181-214 (59.5 - 70.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
05
Gholdengo
SteelGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
165.91
66.7%
Standard error 6.33 points
▾
252+ SpA Gholdengo Psyshock vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 136-162 (44.7 - 53.2%) -- 32.4% chance to 2HKO
06
Ting-Lu
DarkGround
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
27.069
68.8%
Standard error 8.91 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Vessel of Ruin Ting-Lu: 116-138 (22.5 - 26.8%) -- possible 5HKO
07
Garganacl
Rock
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
24.929
69.9%
Standard error 9.19 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Garganacl: 144-170 (35.6 - 42%) -- 87.8% chance to 3HKO after Leftovers recovery
08
Great Tusk
GroundFighting
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
138.043
61.5%
Standard error 7.09 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Great Tusk: 194-230 (44.7 - 52.9%) -- 28.9% chance to 2HKO
09
Ceruledge
FireGhost
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
20.816
71.3%
Standard error 9.91 points
▾
252+ Atk Life Orb Ceruledge Poltergeist vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 175-207 (57.5 - 68%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
10
Slowking-Galar
PoisonPsychic
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
137.566
59.1%
Standard error 6.99 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Assault Vest Slowking-Galar: 42-51 (10.6 - 12.9%) -- possible 8HKO
11
Kyurem
DragonIce
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
93.473
59.9%
Standard error 8.23 points
▾
252+ SpA Kyurem Freeze-Dry vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 144-170 (47.3 - 55.9%) -- 78.5% chance to 2HKO
12
Clodsire
PoisonGround
DEFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
31.907
59.6%
Standard error 8.69 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Clodsire: 134-158 (28.8 - 34%) -- 1.2% chance to 3HKO
13
Walking Wake
WaterDragon
OFFENSIVE CHECK
View matchup
22.252
55.5%
Standard error 10.53 points
▾
252+ SpA Choice Specs Walking Wake Draco Meteor vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 190-225 (62.5 - 74%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
14
Gliscor
GroundFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
364.565
25.3%
Standard error 3.25 points
▾
252+ Atk Gliscor Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 204-240 (67.1 - 78.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
15
Toxapex
PoisonWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
114.835
28.3%
Standard error 4.20 points
▾
252+ SpA Toxapex Surf vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 26-31 (8.5 - 10.1%)
16
Zamazenta
Fighting
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
92.47
38.2%
Standard error 7.12 points
▾
252+ Atk Zamazenta Stone Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 79-93 (25.9 - 30.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
17
Ogerpon-Wellspring
GrassWater
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
105.878
37.1%
Standard error 7.92 points
▾
252+ Atk Wellspring Mask Ogerpon-Wellspring Power Whip vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 169-201 (55.5 - 66.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
18
Dragonite
DragonFlying
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
24.288
45.7%
Standard error 10.11 points
▾
252+ Atk Dragonite Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 170-202 (55.9 - 66.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
19
Clefable
Fairy
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
67.116
37.8%
Standard error 8.16 points
▾
252+ SpA Clefable Charge Beam vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 56-66 (18.4 - 21.7%) -- possible 5HKO
20
Corviknight
FlyingSteel
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
248.836
10.6%
Standard error 1.95 points
▾
252+ Atk Corviknight Brave Bird vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 114-135 (37.5 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
21
Iron Valiant
FairyFighting
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
22.453
43.0%
Standard error 10.45 points
▾
252+ SpA Iron Valiant Thunderbolt vs. 252 HP / 252+ SpD Toxapex: 114-136 (37.5 - 44.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
22
Samurott-Hisui
WaterDark
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
70.298
31.2%
Standard error 7.78 points
▾
252+ Atk Sharpness Samurott-Hisui Ceaseless Edge vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 106-126 (34.8 - 41.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
23
Ogerpon
Grass
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
20.607
42.4%
Standard error 10.89 points
▾
252+ Atk Ogerpon Ivy Cudgel vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 118-139 (38.8 - 45.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
24
Dondozo
Water
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
48.139
14.2%
Standard error 5.04 points
▾
252+ Atk Dondozo Crunch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 56-66 (18.4 - 21.7%) -- possible 5HKO
25
Cinderace
Fire
SOFT CHECK
View matchup
32.19
10.5%
Standard error 5.41 points
▾
252+ Atk Cinderace Pyro Ball vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Toxapex: 69-81 (22.6 - 26.6%) -- 29.4% chance to 4HKO
Ranked #36 with 6.25% usage. Sorted by conservative score.